Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Politics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Politics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Oct 1

Dec 31

Jul 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Oct 1

Dec 31

Jul 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

12% chance
Polymarket

$3,090,917 Vol.

12% chance
Polymarket

$3,090,917 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Taiwan defense ministry assessments and U.S. analyses highlight China's ongoing focus on coercive patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea normalization rather than amphibious assault, citing persistent shortfalls in landing craft, joint command readiness, and overall invasion capacity. Xi Jinping's 2026 military purges have further eroded operational competence needed for a complex campaign, shifting timelines outward. Beijing continues large-scale drills and capability upgrades aimed at 2027 goals, yet intelligence assessments see no fixed invasion date and emphasize lower-risk pressure tactics. These developments sustain trader consensus around the high probability assigned to no invasion by the 2027 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,090,917
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Taiwan defense ministry assessments and U.S. analyses highlight China's ongoing focus on coercive patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea normalization rather than amphibious assault, citing persistent shortfalls in landing craft, joint command readiness, and overall invasion capacity. Xi Jinping's 2026 military purges have further eroded operational competence needed for a complex campaign, shifting timelines outward. Beijing continues large-scale drills and capability upgrades aimed at 2027 goals, yet intelligence assessments see no fixed invasion date and emphasize lower-risk pressure tactics. These developments sustain trader consensus around the high probability assigned to no invasion by the 2027 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,090,917
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%
icon for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

1%
icon for Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

3%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 12% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 12¢, the market collectively assigns a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" has generated $3.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" is 12% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.