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icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$767,566 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$767,566 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$114,702 Vol.

9%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$358,374 Vol.

9%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$12,427 Vol.

7%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$16,910 Vol.

7%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$19,682 Vol.

6%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$13,477 Vol.

6%

icon for Syria

Syria

$21,418 Vol.

6%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$68,644 Vol.

5%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$9,839 Vol.

5%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$20,230 Vol.

4%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$36,705 Vol.

4%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$11,504 Vol.

4%

icon for Iran

Iran

$16,502 Vol.

4%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$13,211 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$20,787 Vol.

4%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$13,154 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic normalization with Israel centers on expanding the Abraham Accords framework amid persistent barriers for remaining holdouts, primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any move on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, with recent US nuclear cooperation talks explicitly linked to joining the Accords. Syria’s post-Assad government has advanced security negotiations that could precede formal recognition, while Indonesia and others cite similar Palestinian prerequisites. Regional dynamics include restored ties in parts of Latin America and Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland, but no major new state recognitions have occurred recently. Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026 and ongoing US-brokered diplomacy represent key near-term variables that could influence momentum before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$767,566
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic normalization with Israel centers on expanding the Abraham Accords framework amid persistent barriers for remaining holdouts, primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any move on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, with recent US nuclear cooperation talks explicitly linked to joining the Accords. Syria’s post-Assad government has advanced security negotiations that could precede formal recognition, while Indonesia and others cite similar Palestinian prerequisites. Regional dynamics include restored ties in parts of Latin America and Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland, but no major new state recognitions have occurred recently. Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026 and ongoing US-brokered diplomacy represent key near-term variables that could influence momentum before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$767,566
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 9%, followed by "Venezuela" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $767.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Lebanon" at just 9%, with "Venezuela" close behind at 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.