**Traders assign a 94% implied probability that Ahmed al-Sharaa will remain Syria’s transitional president through December 31, 2026, reflecting his consolidation of central authority since assuming power in January 2025.** Following the HTS-led overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, al-Sharaa oversaw a five-year transitional constitutional framework, the convening of an interim People’s Assembly in July 2026, and progressive integration of rival forces. Key recent milestones include a January–August 2026 military and political process that dissolved the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), extended Damascus control over most northeastern territory, and produced integration agreements. International backing has strengthened his position through U.S. sanctions relief, removal of HTS and personal terrorist designations, high-level meetings (including with U.S. and European officials), and diplomatic normalization. Domestic polling from early 2026 showed majority favorable views of his performance, while episodic sectarian violence, economic strains, and limited hardliner criticism have not produced organized challenges capable of displacing him on the current timeline. The combination of institutional entrenchment, territorial unification, and external legitimacy underpins the strong trader consensus that al-Sharaa will complete the year in office.