**The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential U.S. national emergency declaration for New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) is the contained nature of the 2026 U.S. outbreak and the established multi-agency response using sterile insect technique.** First detected June 3, 2026, in a Zavala County, Texas calf, confirmed U.S. cases reached roughly 45 by mid-August, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, amid a larger regional surge exceeding 200,000 animal cases in Mexico and Central America. USDA-APHIS leads surveillance, quarantines, and weekly releases of tens of millions of sterile flies from facilities in Texas and Mexico, while FDA has issued 15+ emergency use authorizations for topical and systemic treatments since the 2025 HHS determination enabling them. Official sources including USDA, CDC, and Texas Animal Health Commission report no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with ports partially reopening under science-based protocols. No presidential national emergency has been declared, as state disaster proclamations and targeted federal actions suffice for current conditions; upcoming sterile fly production milestones and surveillance updates through fall 2026 remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
October 31
43%
December 31
43%
$1,868 Vol.
October 31
$0 Vol.
43%
December 31
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential U.S. national emergency declaration for New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) is the contained nature of the 2026 U.S. outbreak and the established multi-agency response using sterile insect technique.**
First detected June 3, 2026, in a Zavala County, Texas calf, confirmed U.S. cases reached roughly 45 by mid-August, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, amid a larger regional surge exceeding 200,000 animal cases in Mexico and Central America. USDA-APHIS leads surveillance, quarantines, and weekly releases of tens of millions of sterile flies from facilities in Texas and Mexico, while FDA has issued 15+ emergency use authorizations for topical and systemic treatments since the 2025 HHS determination enabling them. Official sources including USDA, CDC, and Texas Animal Health Commission report no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with ports partially reopening under science-based protocols. No presidential national emergency has been declared, as state disaster proclamations and targeted federal actions suffice for current conditions; upcoming sterile fly production milestones and surveillance updates through fall 2026 remain key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,868End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential U.S. national emergency declaration for New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) is the contained nature of the 2026 U.S. outbreak and the established multi-agency response using sterile insect technique.**
First detected June 3, 2026, in a Zavala County, Texas calf, confirmed U.S. cases reached roughly 45 by mid-August, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, amid a larger regional surge exceeding 200,000 animal cases in Mexico and Central America. USDA-APHIS leads surveillance, quarantines, and weekly releases of tens of millions of sterile flies from facilities in Texas and Mexico, while FDA has issued 15+ emergency use authorizations for topical and systemic treatments since the 2025 HHS determination enabling them. Official sources including USDA, CDC, and Texas Animal Health Commission report no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with ports partially reopening under science-based protocols. No presidential national emergency has been declared, as state disaster proclamations and targeted federal actions suffice for current conditions; upcoming sterile fly production milestones and surveillance updates through fall 2026 remain key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,868End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential U.S. national emergency declaration for New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) is the contained nature of the 2026 U.S. outbreak and the established multi-agency response using sterile insect technique.** First detected June 3, 2026, in a Zavala County, Texas calf, confirmed U.S. cases reached roughly 45 by mid-August, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, amid a larger regional surge exceeding 200,000 animal cases in Mexico and Central America. USDA-APHIS leads surveillance, quarantines, and weekly releases of tens of millions of sterile flies from facilities in Texas and Mexico, while FDA has issued 15+ emergency use authorizations for topical and systemic treatments since the 2025 HHS determination enabling them. Official sources including USDA, CDC, and Texas Animal Health Commission report no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with ports partially reopening under science-based protocols. No presidential national emergency has been declared, as state disaster proclamations and targeted federal actions suffice for current conditions; upcoming sterile fly production milestones and surveillance updates through fall 2026 remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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