Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody in Brooklyn following his capture during a US military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026, ordered under President Trump, and his subsequent transfer to face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges in New York federal court. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with proceedings ongoing amid an interim Venezuelan government led by Delcy Rodríguez that has focused on releasing domestic political prisoners and pursuing reconciliation talks. Key drivers of trader views include the status of Maduro's US legal case, any potential diplomatic negotiations or prisoner exchanges between Washington and Caracas, and scheduled court milestones that could influence release timelines or conditions. No verified release has occurred as of early September 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,689,156 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,689,156 Vol.
December 31
$293,707 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody in Brooklyn following his capture during a US military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026, ordered under President Trump, and his subsequent transfer to face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges in New York federal court. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with proceedings ongoing amid an interim Venezuelan government led by Delcy Rodríguez that has focused on releasing domestic political prisoners and pursuing reconciliation talks. Key drivers of trader views include the status of Maduro's US legal case, any potential diplomatic negotiations or prisoner exchanges between Washington and Caracas, and scheduled court milestones that could influence release timelines or conditions. No verified release has occurred as of early September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,689,156End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody in Brooklyn following his capture during a US military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026, ordered under President Trump, and his subsequent transfer to face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges in New York federal court. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with proceedings ongoing amid an interim Venezuelan government led by Delcy Rodríguez that has focused on releasing domestic political prisoners and pursuing reconciliation talks. Key drivers of trader views include the status of Maduro's US legal case, any potential diplomatic negotiations or prisoner exchanges between Washington and Caracas, and scheduled court milestones that could influence release timelines or conditions. No verified release has occurred as of early September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,689,156End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody in Brooklyn following his capture during a US military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026, ordered under President Trump, and his subsequent transfer to face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges in New York federal court. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with proceedings ongoing amid an interim Venezuelan government led by Delcy Rodríguez that has focused on releasing domestic political prisoners and pursuing reconciliation talks. Key drivers of trader views include the status of Maduro's US legal case, any potential diplomatic negotiations or prisoner exchanges between Washington and Caracas, and scheduled court milestones that could influence release timelines or conditions. No verified release has occurred as of early September 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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