Recent forecast model consensus from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles positions a daytime high of 16–17°C as the most likely outcome for Helsinki on September 11, with moderate northwest winds and partial cloud cover limiting stronger warming. This aligns with climatological norms near 16.2°C and explains the market’s leading probabilities on those exact thresholds. Minor model spreads allow for an 18°C peak if daytime insolation increases more than expected, while cooler advection keeps lower outcomes in play. No significant forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, and traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range in official guidance when pricing the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on September 11?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 11?
17°C 39%
16°C 27%
18°C 19%
15°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
5%
15°C
11%
16°C
27%
17°C
39%
18°C
21%
19°C
7%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 39%
16°C 27%
18°C 19%
15°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
3%
12°C
$0 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$4 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C
$10 Vol.
27%
17°C
$5 Vol.
39%
18°C
$17 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles positions a daytime high of 16–17°C as the most likely outcome for Helsinki on September 11, with moderate northwest winds and partial cloud cover limiting stronger warming. This aligns with climatological norms near 16.2°C and explains the market’s leading probabilities on those exact thresholds. Minor model spreads allow for an 18°C peak if daytime insolation increases more than expected, while cooler advection keeps lower outcomes in play. No significant forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, and traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range in official guidance when pricing the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$36End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles positions a daytime high of 16–17°C as the most likely outcome for Helsinki on September 11, with moderate northwest winds and partial cloud cover limiting stronger warming. This aligns with climatological norms near 16.2°C and explains the market’s leading probabilities on those exact thresholds. Minor model spreads allow for an 18°C peak if daytime insolation increases more than expected, while cooler advection keeps lower outcomes in play. No significant forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, and traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range in official guidance when pricing the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles positions a daytime high of 16–17°C as the most likely outcome for Helsinki on September 11, with moderate northwest winds and partial cloud cover limiting stronger warming. This aligns with climatological norms near 16.2°C and explains the market’s leading probabilities on those exact thresholds. Minor model spreads allow for an 18°C peak if daytime insolation increases more than expected, while cooler advection keeps lower outcomes in play. No significant forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, and traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range in official guidance when pricing the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions