Elevated inflation readings, including July 2026 PCE at 3.7 percent, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the updated dot plot shifting the 2026 median higher to reflect at least one rate increase. This environment has elevated the market-implied probability of “Other” sequences—encompassing potential hikes—at 63.5 percent on Polymarket, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 35 percent. Traders are now focused on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September 16 decision and the October 28 meeting, where any deviation from holds would favor non-pause paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$747,243 Vol.
$747,243 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$747,243 Vol.
$747,243 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,242 Vol.
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,459 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Vol.
<1%
Other
$319,434 Vol.
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including July 2026 PCE at 3.7 percent, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the updated dot plot shifting the 2026 median higher to reflect at least one rate increase. This environment has elevated the market-implied probability of “Other” sequences—encompassing potential hikes—at 63.5 percent on Polymarket, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 35 percent. Traders are now focused on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September 16 decision and the October 28 meeting, where any deviation from holds would favor non-pause paths.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$747,243End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including July 2026 PCE at 3.7 percent, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the updated dot plot shifting the 2026 median higher to reflect at least one rate increase. This environment has elevated the market-implied probability of “Other” sequences—encompassing potential hikes—at 63.5 percent on Polymarket, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 35 percent. Traders are now focused on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September 16 decision and the October 28 meeting, where any deviation from holds would favor non-pause paths.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$747,243End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including July 2026 PCE at 3.7 percent, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the updated dot plot shifting the 2026 median higher to reflect at least one rate increase. This environment has elevated the market-implied probability of “Other” sequences—encompassing potential hikes—at 63.5 percent on Polymarket, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 35 percent. Traders are now focused on incoming CPI and employment data ahead of the September 16 decision and the October 28 meeting, where any deviation from holds would favor non-pause paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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