The Pitt’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for season two—far ahead of the field—and its status as the 2025 Outstanding Drama Series winner. The HBO Max medical drama’s realistic day-in-the-life format, expanded ensemble recognition, and continued critical praise for Noah Wyle’s lead performance have solidified broad academy support ahead of final-round voting. With the Primetime Emmys set for September 14, traders see limited room for a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus or other nominees like The Diplomat and Slow Horses. An upset would require an unusually fragmented vote or a sudden narrative shift against the reigning champion, scenarios viewed as remote given the show’s nomination dominance and historical repeat patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
“The Pitt” 94%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” 2.4%
“Your Friends & Neighbors” 2.0%
“Slow Horses” 1.9%
$26,067 Vol.
$26,067 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
94%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
2%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
2%
“Slow Horses”
2%
“The Gilded Age”
2%
"The Diplomat"
2%
“Paradise”
1%
“The Pitt” 94%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” 2.4%
“Your Friends & Neighbors” 2.0%
“Slow Horses” 1.9%
$26,067 Vol.
$26,067 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
$19,046 Vol.
94%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
$861 Vol.
2%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
$1,247 Vol.
2%
“Slow Horses”
$2,275 Vol.
2%
“The Gilded Age”
$931 Vol.
2%
"The Diplomat"
$856 Vol.
2%
“Paradise”
$851 Vol.
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for season two—far ahead of the field—and its status as the 2025 Outstanding Drama Series winner. The HBO Max medical drama’s realistic day-in-the-life format, expanded ensemble recognition, and continued critical praise for Noah Wyle’s lead performance have solidified broad academy support ahead of final-round voting. With the Primetime Emmys set for September 14, traders see limited room for a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus or other nominees like The Diplomat and Slow Horses. An upset would require an unusually fragmented vote or a sudden narrative shift against the reigning champion, scenarios viewed as remote given the show’s nomination dominance and historical repeat patterns.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$26,067End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for season two—far ahead of the field—and its status as the 2025 Outstanding Drama Series winner. The HBO Max medical drama’s realistic day-in-the-life format, expanded ensemble recognition, and continued critical praise for Noah Wyle’s lead performance have solidified broad academy support ahead of final-round voting. With the Primetime Emmys set for September 14, traders see limited room for a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus or other nominees like The Diplomat and Slow Horses. An upset would require an unusually fragmented vote or a sudden narrative shift against the reigning champion, scenarios viewed as remote given the show’s nomination dominance and historical repeat patterns.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,067End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pitt’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for season two—far ahead of the field—and its status as the 2025 Outstanding Drama Series winner. The HBO Max medical drama’s realistic day-in-the-life format, expanded ensemble recognition, and continued critical praise for Noah Wyle’s lead performance have solidified broad academy support ahead of final-round voting. With the Primetime Emmys set for September 14, traders see limited room for a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus or other nominees like The Diplomat and Slow Horses. An upset would require an unusually fragmented vote or a sudden narrative shift against the reigning champion, scenarios viewed as remote given the show’s nomination dominance and historical repeat patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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