Anthropic’s rapid revenue expansion to a $65 billion annualized run-rate by July 2026, paired with its May Series H private valuation of $965 billion, underpins the overwhelming 96.4% implied probability that its IPO closing market cap exceeds $600 billion. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, strong enterprise adoption, and banker targets near $2 trillion for an October or November 2026 listing. While this skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable growth and competitive AI positioning, realistic challenges include IPO delays from regulatory scrutiny, a broader tech valuation reset, or slower-than-projected scaling that could compress multiples below current private levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated600B+ 96.4%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 1.1%
400–600B <1%
<100B <1%
$444,205 Vol.
$444,205 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
<1%
400–600B
1%
600B+
96%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
1%
600B+ 96.4%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 1.1%
400–600B <1%
<100B <1%
$444,205 Vol.
$444,205 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
$158,178 Vol.
1%
100–200B
$82,829 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$22,839 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$73,801 Vol.
<1%
400–600B
$22,929 Vol.
1%
600B+
$48,396 Vol.
96%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$35,234 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic’s rapid revenue expansion to a $65 billion annualized run-rate by July 2026, paired with its May Series H private valuation of $965 billion, underpins the overwhelming 96.4% implied probability that its IPO closing market cap exceeds $600 billion. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, strong enterprise adoption, and banker targets near $2 trillion for an October or November 2026 listing. While this skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable growth and competitive AI positioning, realistic challenges include IPO delays from regulatory scrutiny, a broader tech valuation reset, or slower-than-projected scaling that could compress multiples below current private levels.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$444,205End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic’s rapid revenue expansion to a $65 billion annualized run-rate by July 2026, paired with its May Series H private valuation of $965 billion, underpins the overwhelming 96.4% implied probability that its IPO closing market cap exceeds $600 billion. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, strong enterprise adoption, and banker targets near $2 trillion for an October or November 2026 listing. While this skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable growth and competitive AI positioning, realistic challenges include IPO delays from regulatory scrutiny, a broader tech valuation reset, or slower-than-projected scaling that could compress multiples below current private levels.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$444,205End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s rapid revenue expansion to a $65 billion annualized run-rate by July 2026, paired with its May Series H private valuation of $965 billion, underpins the overwhelming 96.4% implied probability that its IPO closing market cap exceeds $600 billion. Traders are pricing in continued momentum from recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, strong enterprise adoption, and banker targets near $2 trillion for an October or November 2026 listing. While this skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable growth and competitive AI positioning, realistic challenges include IPO delays from regulatory scrutiny, a broader tech valuation reset, or slower-than-projected scaling that could compress multiples below current private levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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