Trump’s repeated public signals of openness to renewed personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, including recent statements expecting a meeting later in 2026 and gestures such as curtailing U.S.-South Korea military exercises, have sustained limited trader interest in a North Korea visit. However, the market’s low implied probability for a physical visit by December 31, 2026, stems from Pyongyang’s continued silence or insistence on major U.S. policy shifts, such as acceptance of its nuclear status and removal of perceived hostile measures, without corresponding high-level preparatory talks or scheduled summits inside North Korean territory. North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia and focus on military self-reliance further reduce near-term momentum, while the November APEC gathering in China offers a potential but unconfirmed regional venue that would not itself resolve the market. Historical precedent of stalled follow-through after prior summits reinforces the current trader consensus.