Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before September 30 because Beijing’s recent actions emphasize sustained gray-zone coercion—expanded coast guard patrols east of the island, routine naval transits, and air incursions—rather than the massive amphibious mobilization required for a full-scale assault. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports note ongoing PLA efforts to improve joint landing capabilities yet assess those forces as still inadequate for such an operation. Leadership purges within the PLA and a focus on long-term pressure, including legal and maritime normalization steps, further signal no short-term decision for war. While an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation remains theoretically possible in the narrow remaining window, current patterns and logistical realities underpin the market’s strong consensus against an imminent invasion.