**High mortgage rates near 6.5-6.7% and persistent affordability constraints continue to moderate U.S. home price growth, supporting the 63.9% market-implied probability for a median home value below $419,000 on September 30.** Recent data show typical home values (Zillow ZHVI) at approximately $372,000 as of late July, with 1% year-over-year gains and a modest 1.1% one-year forecast. Median existing-home sales prices reached $440,600 in June before easing to $434,100 in July, while median list prices fell to $424,500 in August amid rising inventory and price cuts. Slower appreciation reflects elevated borrowing costs, soft transaction volumes, and regional divergences, with limited near-term catalysts before the resolution date. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in continued modest momentum rather than acceleration or sharp reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$419K 60.5%
$419K - $426K 29.3%
$426K - $433K 6.3%
$433K - $440K 2.9%
$78,080 Vol.
$78,080 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
61%
$419K - $426K
29%
$426K - $433K
6%
$433K - $440K
3%
$440K - $447K
1%
$447K - $454K
1%
$454K+
<1%
<$419K 60.5%
$419K - $426K 29.3%
$426K - $433K 6.3%
$433K - $440K 2.9%
$78,080 Vol.
$78,080 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
$24,621 Vol.
61%
$419K - $426K
$15,441 Vol.
29%
$426K - $433K
$10,596 Vol.
6%
$433K - $440K
$17,117 Vol.
3%
$440K - $447K
$5,038 Vol.
1%
$447K - $454K
$4,389 Vol.
1%
$454K+
$878 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)**High mortgage rates near 6.5-6.7% and persistent affordability constraints continue to moderate U.S. home price growth, supporting the 63.9% market-implied probability for a median home value below $419,000 on September 30.** Recent data show typical home values (Zillow ZHVI) at approximately $372,000 as of late July, with 1% year-over-year gains and a modest 1.1% one-year forecast. Median existing-home sales prices reached $440,600 in June before easing to $434,100 in July, while median list prices fell to $424,500 in August amid rising inventory and price cuts. Slower appreciation reflects elevated borrowing costs, soft transaction volumes, and regional divergences, with limited near-term catalysts before the resolution date. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in continued modest momentum rather than acceleration or sharp reversal.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Volume
$78,080End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)**High mortgage rates near 6.5-6.7% and persistent affordability constraints continue to moderate U.S. home price growth, supporting the 63.9% market-implied probability for a median home value below $419,000 on September 30.** Recent data show typical home values (Zillow ZHVI) at approximately $372,000 as of late July, with 1% year-over-year gains and a modest 1.1% one-year forecast. Median existing-home sales prices reached $440,600 in June before easing to $434,100 in July, while median list prices fell to $424,500 in August amid rising inventory and price cuts. Slower appreciation reflects elevated borrowing costs, soft transaction volumes, and regional divergences, with limited near-term catalysts before the resolution date. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in continued modest momentum rather than acceleration or sharp reversal.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Volume
$78,080End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**High mortgage rates near 6.5-6.7% and persistent affordability constraints continue to moderate U.S. home price growth, supporting the 63.9% market-implied probability for a median home value below $419,000 on September 30.** Recent data show typical home values (Zillow ZHVI) at approximately $372,000 as of late July, with 1% year-over-year gains and a modest 1.1% one-year forecast. Median existing-home sales prices reached $440,600 in June before easing to $434,100 in July, while median list prices fell to $424,500 in August amid rising inventory and price cuts. Slower appreciation reflects elevated borrowing costs, soft transaction volumes, and regional divergences, with limited near-term catalysts before the resolution date. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in continued modest momentum rather than acceleration or sharp reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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