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Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

Sep 30

Sep 30

<$1.176M 74%

$1.176M - $1.198M 15.4%

$1.198M - $1.220M 4.9%

$1.220M - $1.242M 4.5%

Polymarket

$46,207 Vol.

<$1.176M 74%

$1.176M - $1.198M 15.4%

$1.198M - $1.220M 4.9%

$1.220M - $1.242M 4.5%

Polymarket

$46,207 Vol.

<$1.176M

$22,613 Vol.

74%

$1.176M - $1.198M

$14,190 Vol.

15%

$1.198M - $1.220M

$2,066 Vol.

5%

$1.220M - $1.242M

$1,991 Vol.

4%

$1.242M - $1.264M

$3,048 Vol.

3%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$1,088 Vol.

1%

$1.284M+

$1,211 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Persistent low inventory from the mortgage rate lock-in effect, combined with elevated 30-year fixed rates near 6.4-6.5%, continues to constrain SF Metro housing turnover and supports trader consensus around the lower outcome bands.** Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July-August 2026 show typical home values (ZHVI) in the $1.13-1.42 million range for the metro area, with median sale prices higher at $1.6 million-plus but reflecting luxury and single-family strength driven by AI-sector wealth at firms like OpenAI and Anthropic. Year-over-year gains of 6% in median sale prices coexist with tight supply—active listings down sharply and days on market compressed—yet broader metro indices have not accelerated enough in the final weeks before September 30 to shift implied probabilities materially. Fed policy holding the funds rate steady amid sticky inflation, limited new construction, and the lock-in of sub-5% mortgages keep supply-side pressure intact, while buyer demand remains concentrated at the high end. With resolution imminent, market-implied odds reflect the limited scope for meaningful index movement in the next 24 days absent a sharp data surprise.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$46,207
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Persistent low inventory from the mortgage rate lock-in effect, combined with elevated 30-year fixed rates near 6.4-6.5%, continues to constrain SF Metro housing turnover and supports trader consensus around the lower outcome bands.** Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July-August 2026 show typical home values (ZHVI) in the $1.13-1.42 million range for the metro area, with median sale prices higher at $1.6 million-plus but reflecting luxury and single-family strength driven by AI-sector wealth at firms like OpenAI and Anthropic. Year-over-year gains of 6% in median sale prices coexist with tight supply—active listings down sharply and days on market compressed—yet broader metro indices have not accelerated enough in the final weeks before September 30 to shift implied probabilities materially. Fed policy holding the funds rate steady amid sticky inflation, limited new construction, and the lock-in of sub-5% mortgages keep supply-side pressure intact, while buyer demand remains concentrated at the high end. With resolution imminent, market-implied odds reflect the limited scope for meaningful index movement in the next 24 days absent a sharp data surprise.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$46,207
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<$1.176M" at 74%, followed by "$1.176M - $1.198M" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" has generated $46.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" is "<$1.176M" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$1.176M - $1.198M" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.