**Elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and persistent affordability constraints remain the dominant factors anchoring SF metro median home values near or below the $1.176 million threshold, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability on the lowest bin.** Recent Zillow and Redfin data through mid-2026 show typical metro values around $1.13–1.18 million, with modest year-over-year gains of 1–4% offset by inventory shortages and a broader Bay Area slowdown outside AI-fueled luxury segments in San Francisco proper. The lock-in effect from low-rate mortgages continues to suppress supply, while Q2 FHFA house price index readings indicated slight softening. With September 30 resolution imminent, limited additional data releases before month-end reduce the likelihood of sharp upward moves into higher bins. Trader consensus reflects these near-term fundamentals over longer-term AI wealth effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$1.176M 74%
$1.176M - $1.198M 15.7%
$1.220M - $1.242M 4.8%
$1.198M - $1.220M 4.5%
$46,207 Vol.
$46,207 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$1.176M
74%
$1.176M - $1.198M
16%
$1.198M - $1.220M
5%
$1.220M - $1.242M
5%
$1.242M - $1.264M
3%
$1.264M - $1.284M
1%
$1.284M+
<1%
<$1.176M 74%
$1.176M - $1.198M 15.7%
$1.220M - $1.242M 4.8%
$1.198M - $1.220M 4.5%
$46,207 Vol.
$46,207 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$1.176M
$22,613 Vol.
74%
$1.176M - $1.198M
$14,190 Vol.
16%
$1.198M - $1.220M
$2,066 Vol.
5%
$1.220M - $1.242M
$1,991 Vol.
5%
$1.242M - $1.264M
$3,048 Vol.
3%
$1.264M - $1.284M
$1,088 Vol.
1%
$1.284M+
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and persistent affordability constraints remain the dominant factors anchoring SF metro median home values near or below the $1.176 million threshold, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability on the lowest bin.** Recent Zillow and Redfin data through mid-2026 show typical metro values around $1.13–1.18 million, with modest year-over-year gains of 1–4% offset by inventory shortages and a broader Bay Area slowdown outside AI-fueled luxury segments in San Francisco proper. The lock-in effect from low-rate mortgages continues to suppress supply, while Q2 FHFA house price index readings indicated slight softening. With September 30 resolution imminent, limited additional data releases before month-end reduce the likelihood of sharp upward moves into higher bins. Trader consensus reflects these near-term fundamentals over longer-term AI wealth effects.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$46,207End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and persistent affordability constraints remain the dominant factors anchoring SF metro median home values near or below the $1.176 million threshold, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability on the lowest bin.** Recent Zillow and Redfin data through mid-2026 show typical metro values around $1.13–1.18 million, with modest year-over-year gains of 1–4% offset by inventory shortages and a broader Bay Area slowdown outside AI-fueled luxury segments in San Francisco proper. The lock-in effect from low-rate mortgages continues to suppress supply, while Q2 FHFA house price index readings indicated slight softening. With September 30 resolution imminent, limited additional data releases before month-end reduce the likelihood of sharp upward moves into higher bins. Trader consensus reflects these near-term fundamentals over longer-term AI wealth effects.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$46,207End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and persistent affordability constraints remain the dominant factors anchoring SF metro median home values near or below the $1.176 million threshold, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability on the lowest bin.** Recent Zillow and Redfin data through mid-2026 show typical metro values around $1.13–1.18 million, with modest year-over-year gains of 1–4% offset by inventory shortages and a broader Bay Area slowdown outside AI-fueled luxury segments in San Francisco proper. The lock-in effect from low-rate mortgages continues to suppress supply, while Q2 FHFA house price index readings indicated slight softening. With September 30 resolution imminent, limited additional data releases before month-end reduce the likelihood of sharp upward moves into higher bins. Trader consensus reflects these near-term fundamentals over longer-term AI wealth effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions