Persistent elevated housing inventory and continued price corrections position the Austin metro median home value below $446K as the dominant outcome. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down nearly 10% year over year, with Zillow-tracked values near $424,000 amid 5+ months of supply and widespread price cuts exceeding 35% of listings. Strong job growth and net migration have failed to offset the supply overhang from prior building, keeping sale-to-list ratios below 98% and supporting the 82.5% market-implied probability for sub-$446K resolution by September 30. No near-term catalysts appear likely to reverse the downward trajectory in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$446K 83%
$454K - $462K 15.2%
$470K - $478K 1.2%
$462K - $470K <1%
$92,449 Vol.
$92,449 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
83%
$446K - $454K
1%
$454K - $462K
15%
$462K - $470K
1%
$470K - $478K
1%
$478K - $486K
1%
$486K+
1%
<$446K 83%
$454K - $462K 15.2%
$470K - $478K 1.2%
$462K - $470K <1%
$92,449 Vol.
$92,449 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
$34,562 Vol.
83%
$446K - $454K
$16,670 Vol.
1%
$454K - $462K
$7,208 Vol.
15%
$462K - $470K
$6,093 Vol.
1%
$470K - $478K
$12,821 Vol.
1%
$478K - $486K
$5,189 Vol.
1%
$486K+
$9,907 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Persistent elevated housing inventory and continued price corrections position the Austin metro median home value below $446K as the dominant outcome. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down nearly 10% year over year, with Zillow-tracked values near $424,000 amid 5+ months of supply and widespread price cuts exceeding 35% of listings. Strong job growth and net migration have failed to offset the supply overhang from prior building, keeping sale-to-list ratios below 98% and supporting the 82.5% market-implied probability for sub-$446K resolution by September 30. No near-term catalysts appear likely to reverse the downward trajectory in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$92,449End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Persistent elevated housing inventory and continued price corrections position the Austin metro median home value below $446K as the dominant outcome. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down nearly 10% year over year, with Zillow-tracked values near $424,000 amid 5+ months of supply and widespread price cuts exceeding 35% of listings. Strong job growth and net migration have failed to offset the supply overhang from prior building, keeping sale-to-list ratios below 98% and supporting the 82.5% market-implied probability for sub-$446K resolution by September 30. No near-term catalysts appear likely to reverse the downward trajectory in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$92,449End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent elevated housing inventory and continued price corrections position the Austin metro median home value below $446K as the dominant outcome. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down nearly 10% year over year, with Zillow-tracked values near $424,000 amid 5+ months of supply and widespread price cuts exceeding 35% of listings. Strong job growth and net migration have failed to offset the supply overhang from prior building, keeping sale-to-list ratios below 98% and supporting the 82.5% market-implied probability for sub-$446K resolution by September 30. No near-term catalysts appear likely to reverse the downward trajectory in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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