**No at 98.1% reflects traders’ assessment that criminal charges and a conviction remain highly improbable despite the February 2026 arrest.** Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was detained on suspicion of misconduct in public office over alleged sharing of confidential trade information with Jeffrey Epstein while serving as UK trade envoy, then released under investigation after roughly 11 hours. Thames Valley Police have continued inquiries into that allegation and separate reports of possible sexual misconduct, including appeals for witnesses and engagement with legal representatives, but no charges have been filed as of September 2026. Prosecutors apply a strict two-stage test—realistic prospect of conviction and public interest—and the case’s complexity, evidentiary hurdles, and the absence of the primary accuser Virginia Giuffre (who died in 2025) contribute to the elevated bar. Historical precedent shows UK authorities rarely pursue such cases against senior royals to conviction. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include formal charges by the Crown Prosecution Service, new corroborated evidence emerging from ongoing police work with U.S. authorities, or a successful prosecution leading to sentencing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$221,984 Vol.
$221,984 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$221,984 Vol.
$221,984 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No at 98.1% reflects traders’ assessment that criminal charges and a conviction remain highly improbable despite the February 2026 arrest.** Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was detained on suspicion of misconduct in public office over alleged sharing of confidential trade information with Jeffrey Epstein while serving as UK trade envoy, then released under investigation after roughly 11 hours. Thames Valley Police have continued inquiries into that allegation and separate reports of possible sexual misconduct, including appeals for witnesses and engagement with legal representatives, but no charges have been filed as of September 2026. Prosecutors apply a strict two-stage test—realistic prospect of conviction and public interest—and the case’s complexity, evidentiary hurdles, and the absence of the primary accuser Virginia Giuffre (who died in 2025) contribute to the elevated bar. Historical precedent shows UK authorities rarely pursue such cases against senior royals to conviction.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include formal charges by the Crown Prosecution Service, new corroborated evidence emerging from ongoing police work with U.S. authorities, or a successful prosecution leading to sentencing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ET
Volume
$221,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No at 98.1% reflects traders’ assessment that criminal charges and a conviction remain highly improbable despite the February 2026 arrest.** Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was detained on suspicion of misconduct in public office over alleged sharing of confidential trade information with Jeffrey Epstein while serving as UK trade envoy, then released under investigation after roughly 11 hours. Thames Valley Police have continued inquiries into that allegation and separate reports of possible sexual misconduct, including appeals for witnesses and engagement with legal representatives, but no charges have been filed as of September 2026. Prosecutors apply a strict two-stage test—realistic prospect of conviction and public interest—and the case’s complexity, evidentiary hurdles, and the absence of the primary accuser Virginia Giuffre (who died in 2025) contribute to the elevated bar. Historical precedent shows UK authorities rarely pursue such cases against senior royals to conviction.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include formal charges by the Crown Prosecution Service, new corroborated evidence emerging from ongoing police work with U.S. authorities, or a successful prosecution leading to sentencing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$221,984End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 98.1% reflects traders’ assessment that criminal charges and a conviction remain highly improbable despite the February 2026 arrest.** Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was detained on suspicion of misconduct in public office over alleged sharing of confidential trade information with Jeffrey Epstein while serving as UK trade envoy, then released under investigation after roughly 11 hours. Thames Valley Police have continued inquiries into that allegation and separate reports of possible sexual misconduct, including appeals for witnesses and engagement with legal representatives, but no charges have been filed as of September 2026. Prosecutors apply a strict two-stage test—realistic prospect of conviction and public interest—and the case’s complexity, evidentiary hurdles, and the absence of the primary accuser Virginia Giuffre (who died in 2025) contribute to the elevated bar. Historical precedent shows UK authorities rarely pursue such cases against senior royals to conviction. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include formal charges by the Crown Prosecution Service, new corroborated evidence emerging from ongoing police work with U.S. authorities, or a successful prosecution leading to sentencing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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