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icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Politics·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Politics·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

Jess Wilson 65%

Ben Carroll 16.4%

Sonya Kilkenny 8.5%

Jacinta Allan 5.4%

Polymarket

$19,080 Vol.

Jess Wilson 65%

Ben Carroll 16.4%

Sonya Kilkenny 8.5%

Jacinta Allan 5.4%

Polymarket

$19,080 Vol.

icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$3,303 Vol.

65%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$4,567 Vol.

16%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$215 Vol.

8%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$327 Vol.

5%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$165 Vol.

4%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$165 Vol.

4%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$1,756 Vol.

1%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$1,158 Vol.

1%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$215 Vol.

<1%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$1,181 Vol.

<1%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$1,418 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$1,143 Vol.

<1%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$1,143 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$1,181 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$1,143 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal Party as opposition leader and holds a substantial edge in the market for the next premier ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election. Recent polling has shown the Coalition ahead on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson preferred over Labor figures. Labor’s July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, accompanied by a royal commission announcement into the construction sector, has not reversed the trend. Carroll’s current low implied probability reflects ongoing voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government after more than a decade in office. Lower probabilities for other candidates, including Allan and various ministers, align with the absence of viable alternative pathways outside the major-party contest. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases could still influence trader assessments of the final outcome.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,080
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal Party as opposition leader and holds a substantial edge in the market for the next premier ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election. Recent polling has shown the Coalition ahead on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson preferred over Labor figures. Labor’s July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, accompanied by a royal commission announcement into the construction sector, has not reversed the trend. Carroll’s current low implied probability reflects ongoing voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government after more than a decade in office. Lower probabilities for other candidates, including Allan and various ministers, align with the absence of viable alternative pathways outside the major-party contest. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases could still influence trader assessments of the final outcome.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,080
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Premier of Victoria" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jess Wilson" at 65%, followed by "Ben Carroll" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Premier of Victoria" has generated $19.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Premier of Victoria," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Premier of Victoria" is "Jess Wilson" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ben Carroll" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Premier of Victoria" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.