Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 52-55 percent, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Labor’s primary vote has remained weak near 23-26 percent despite the July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson benefits from stronger preferred premier ratings and gains on issues such as crime and state debt. One Nation’s elevated primary support near 22-27 percent fragments the vote but typically directs preferences toward the Coalition in seat projections. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition majority, with Labor retaining a narrower path via preference flows and the election still several weeks away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 76%
Labor 22%
One Nation 2.8%
Greens <1%
$13,074 Vol.
$13,074 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
76%
Labor
22%
One Nation
3%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 76%
Labor 22%
One Nation 2.8%
Greens <1%
$13,074 Vol.
$13,074 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,776 Vol.
76%
Labor
$2,816 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$2,871 Vol.
3%
Greens
$611 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 52-55 percent, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Labor’s primary vote has remained weak near 23-26 percent despite the July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson benefits from stronger preferred premier ratings and gains on issues such as crime and state debt. One Nation’s elevated primary support near 22-27 percent fragments the vote but typically directs preferences toward the Coalition in seat projections. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition majority, with Labor retaining a narrower path via preference flows and the election still several weeks away.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,074End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 52-55 percent, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Labor’s primary vote has remained weak near 23-26 percent despite the July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson benefits from stronger preferred premier ratings and gains on issues such as crime and state debt. One Nation’s elevated primary support near 22-27 percent fragments the vote but typically directs preferences toward the Coalition in seat projections. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition majority, with Labor retaining a narrower path via preference flows and the election still several weeks away.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$13,074End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 52-55 percent, driven by sustained voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government after more than a decade in office. Labor’s primary vote has remained weak near 23-26 percent despite the July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson benefits from stronger preferred premier ratings and gains on issues such as crime and state debt. One Nation’s elevated primary support near 22-27 percent fragments the vote but typically directs preferences toward the Coalition in seat projections. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition majority, with Labor retaining a narrower path via preference flows and the election still several weeks away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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