**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place on primary vote in the November 28 Victorian state election, with recent polling showing the party consistently polling in the low-to-mid 20s percent range behind the Coalition (typically 27-32%) and close to or slightly behind Labor (23-26%).** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan, place the Coalition first on primary votes, followed by a tight contest between Labor and One Nation for second and third, while the Greens remain around 12-13% and other parties lower. One Nation’s rise from negligible support in prior cycles reflects voter shifts toward minor parties amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government, though its position has stabilized following the late-July Labor leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August naming of Warren Pickering as state leader. Preference flows and regional strength will influence final seat outcomes, but current primary vote patterns underpin the market pricing for third place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
One Nation 68%
Greens 20.8%
Labor 5.3%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$18,633 Vol.
$18,633 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
68%
Greens
21%
Labor
5%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Liberal–National
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 68%
Greens 20.8%
Labor 5.3%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$18,633 Vol.
$18,633 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
$6,222 Vol.
68%
Greens
$163 Vol.
21%
Labor
$6,507 Vol.
5%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
Liberal–National
$1,251 Vol.
<1%
Animal Justice
$917 Vol.
<1%
Libertarian
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place on primary vote in the November 28 Victorian state election, with recent polling showing the party consistently polling in the low-to-mid 20s percent range behind the Coalition (typically 27-32%) and close to or slightly behind Labor (23-26%).** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan, place the Coalition first on primary votes, followed by a tight contest between Labor and One Nation for second and third, while the Greens remain around 12-13% and other parties lower. One Nation’s rise from negligible support in prior cycles reflects voter shifts toward minor parties amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government, though its position has stabilized following the late-July Labor leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August naming of Warren Pickering as state leader. Preference flows and regional strength will influence final seat outcomes, but current primary vote patterns underpin the market pricing for third place.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$18,633End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place on primary vote in the November 28 Victorian state election, with recent polling showing the party consistently polling in the low-to-mid 20s percent range behind the Coalition (typically 27-32%) and close to or slightly behind Labor (23-26%).** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan, place the Coalition first on primary votes, followed by a tight contest between Labor and One Nation for second and third, while the Greens remain around 12-13% and other parties lower. One Nation’s rise from negligible support in prior cycles reflects voter shifts toward minor parties amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government, though its position has stabilized following the late-July Labor leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August naming of Warren Pickering as state leader. Preference flows and regional strength will influence final seat outcomes, but current primary vote patterns underpin the market pricing for third place.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$18,633End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place on primary vote in the November 28 Victorian state election, with recent polling showing the party consistently polling in the low-to-mid 20s percent range behind the Coalition (typically 27-32%) and close to or slightly behind Labor (23-26%).** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan, place the Coalition first on primary votes, followed by a tight contest between Labor and One Nation for second and third, while the Greens remain around 12-13% and other parties lower. One Nation’s rise from negligible support in prior cycles reflects voter shifts toward minor parties amid dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labor government, though its position has stabilized following the late-July Labor leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August naming of Warren Pickering as state leader. Preference flows and regional strength will influence final seat outcomes, but current primary vote patterns underpin the market pricing for third place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions