Current surveillance from the WHO and CDC shows no emerging pathogen with sustained human-to-human transmission capable of triggering a pandemic declaration before 2028. Recent regional outbreaks, including Bundibugyo virus disease in the DRC and Uganda with hundreds of confirmed cases and ongoing containment efforts, plus limited hantavirus clusters such as the 2026 cruise ship event, remain geographically contained with low global risk assessments. Avian influenza strains like H5N1 continue to produce only sporadic zoonotic cases without evidence of efficient person-to-person spread. Endemic SARS-CoV-2 circulation stays moderate with no new variants meeting VOC criteria, while post-COVID surveillance enhancements and the inherent rarity of pandemic-scale events support trader consensus on the 75.5% implied probability for “No.” Upcoming model updates and case reports will provide further clarity.