**Nevada’s four congressional districts feature three Democratic-held seats rated likely or lean Democratic by forecasters, alongside one open Republican seat in the 2nd district.** Democrats hold safe advantages in the 1st and 4th districts and a competitive but favored position in the 3rd, where recent margins and ratings point to retention. The 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, remains the pivotal contest; its rural and conservative profile has never elected a Democrat, and most ratings classify it likely Republican despite a July poll showing the Democratic nominee narrowly ahead and internal GOP divisions over the nominee. Trader consensus centers on exactly three Democratic seats because flipping the northern district would require overcoming longstanding structural barriers and current forecaster assessments, while losses in the southern seats appear unlikely given their leanings and incumbent strength. The modest probability assigned to four seats reflects the possibility of a stronger-than-expected Democratic performance in the open seat amid national midterm dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
3 76%
4 19%
2 4.9%
1 1.1%
$11,141 Vol.
$11,141 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
0
1%
1
1%
2
5%
3
76%
4
19%
3 76%
4 19%
2 4.9%
1 1.1%
$11,141 Vol.
$11,141 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
0
$962 Vol.
1%
1
$1,028 Vol.
1%
2
$2,408 Vol.
5%
3
$5,134 Vol.
76%
4
$1,608 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Nevada’s four congressional districts feature three Democratic-held seats rated likely or lean Democratic by forecasters, alongside one open Republican seat in the 2nd district.** Democrats hold safe advantages in the 1st and 4th districts and a competitive but favored position in the 3rd, where recent margins and ratings point to retention. The 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, remains the pivotal contest; its rural and conservative profile has never elected a Democrat, and most ratings classify it likely Republican despite a July poll showing the Democratic nominee narrowly ahead and internal GOP divisions over the nominee. Trader consensus centers on exactly three Democratic seats because flipping the northern district would require overcoming longstanding structural barriers and current forecaster assessments, while losses in the southern seats appear unlikely given their leanings and incumbent strength. The modest probability assigned to four seats reflects the possibility of a stronger-than-expected Democratic performance in the open seat amid national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volume
$11,141End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Nevada’s four congressional districts feature three Democratic-held seats rated likely or lean Democratic by forecasters, alongside one open Republican seat in the 2nd district.** Democrats hold safe advantages in the 1st and 4th districts and a competitive but favored position in the 3rd, where recent margins and ratings point to retention. The 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, remains the pivotal contest; its rural and conservative profile has never elected a Democrat, and most ratings classify it likely Republican despite a July poll showing the Democratic nominee narrowly ahead and internal GOP divisions over the nominee. Trader consensus centers on exactly three Democratic seats because flipping the northern district would require overcoming longstanding structural barriers and current forecaster assessments, while losses in the southern seats appear unlikely given their leanings and incumbent strength. The modest probability assigned to four seats reflects the possibility of a stronger-than-expected Democratic performance in the open seat amid national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,141End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Nevada’s four congressional districts feature three Democratic-held seats rated likely or lean Democratic by forecasters, alongside one open Republican seat in the 2nd district.** Democrats hold safe advantages in the 1st and 4th districts and a competitive but favored position in the 3rd, where recent margins and ratings point to retention. The 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, remains the pivotal contest; its rural and conservative profile has never elected a Democrat, and most ratings classify it likely Republican despite a July poll showing the Democratic nominee narrowly ahead and internal GOP divisions over the nominee. Trader consensus centers on exactly three Democratic seats because flipping the northern district would require overcoming longstanding structural barriers and current forecaster assessments, while losses in the southern seats appear unlikely given their leanings and incumbent strength. The modest probability assigned to four seats reflects the possibility of a stronger-than-expected Democratic performance in the open seat amid national midterm dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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