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icon for Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner
Politics·Mayoral

Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner

icon for Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner
Politics·Mayoral

Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner

Bill Harvey 25%

John Kelly 22%

Ryan Posselt 14%

Louise Bloomfield 11%

Polymarket
NEW

Bill Harvey 25%

John Kelly 22%

Ryan Posselt 14%

Louise Bloomfield 11%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Bill Harvey

Bill Harvey

$408 Vol.

25%

icon for John Kelly

John Kelly

$244 Vol.

22%

icon for Ryan Posselt

Ryan Posselt

$125 Vol.

14%

icon for Louise Bloomfield

Louise Bloomfield

$606 Vol.

11%

icon for Marti Zucco

Marti Zucco

$106 Vol.

10%

icon for Mike Dutta

Mike Dutta

$767 Vol.

5%

icon for Harvey Lennon

Harvey Lennon

$134 Vol.

35%

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).The open field created by incumbent Anna Reynolds’ decision not to recontest has produced a fragmented race among multiple sitting councillors and community figures contesting as independents ahead of Tasmania’s October 27 local government elections. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with no candidate exceeding 28 percent implied probability and the field led narrowly by Harvey Lennon, Bill Harvey, and John Kelly after his recent entry. Preferential voting and limited public polling keep outcomes sensitive to preference flows and late developments such as candidate forums, endorsements, or policy positioning on issues like transport and council governance. Nominations opening this week and any subsequent polling releases could begin to separate the contenders before election day.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,389
End Date
Oct 28, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).The open field created by incumbent Anna Reynolds’ decision not to recontest has produced a fragmented race among multiple sitting councillors and community figures contesting as independents ahead of Tasmania’s October 27 local government elections. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with no candidate exceeding 28 percent implied probability and the field led narrowly by Harvey Lennon, Bill Harvey, and John Kelly after his recent entry. Preferential voting and limited public polling keep outcomes sensitive to preference flows and late developments such as candidate forums, endorsements, or policy positioning on issues like transport and council governance. Nominations opening this week and any subsequent polling releases could begin to separate the contenders before election day.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,389
End Date
Oct 28, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Harvey Lennon" at 35%, followed by "Bill Harvey" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner" is "Harvey Lennon" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bill Harvey" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hobart Lord Mayor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.