**No at 88% reflects limited legislative momentum for a broad federal capital gains tax rate reduction by year-end 2026.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, permanently extended most TCJA individual and business provisions but left top long-term capital gains rates at 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax) unchanged. Recent proposals—such as indexing gains to inflation, expanding the home-sale exclusion, or capping rates at 15%—remain stalled in committee, with House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith indicating any action would likely wait until a post-midterm lame-duck session. Tight remaining calendar time before the November 2026 elections, combined with deficit concerns and competing priorities, has kept enactment odds low in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No at 88% reflects limited legislative momentum for a broad federal capital gains tax rate reduction by year-end 2026.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, permanently extended most TCJA individual and business provisions but left top long-term capital gains rates at 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax) unchanged. Recent proposals—such as indexing gains to inflation, expanding the home-sale exclusion, or capping rates at 15%—remain stalled in committee, with House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith indicating any action would likely wait until a post-midterm lame-duck session. Tight remaining calendar time before the November 2026 elections, combined with deficit concerns and competing priorities, has kept enactment odds low in trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$296End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No at 88% reflects limited legislative momentum for a broad federal capital gains tax rate reduction by year-end 2026.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, permanently extended most TCJA individual and business provisions but left top long-term capital gains rates at 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax) unchanged. Recent proposals—such as indexing gains to inflation, expanding the home-sale exclusion, or capping rates at 15%—remain stalled in committee, with House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith indicating any action would likely wait until a post-midterm lame-duck session. Tight remaining calendar time before the November 2026 elections, combined with deficit concerns and competing priorities, has kept enactment odds low in trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$296End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 88% reflects limited legislative momentum for a broad federal capital gains tax rate reduction by year-end 2026.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, permanently extended most TCJA individual and business provisions but left top long-term capital gains rates at 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax) unchanged. Recent proposals—such as indexing gains to inflation, expanding the home-sale exclusion, or capping rates at 15%—remain stalled in committee, with House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith indicating any action would likely wait until a post-midterm lame-duck session. Tight remaining calendar time before the November 2026 elections, combined with deficit concerns and competing priorities, has kept enactment odds low in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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