**The 83% "No" probability on Polymarket reflects limited legislative momentum to repeal the 90% cap on wagering loss deductions before the end of 2026.** The cap was enacted as Section 70114 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 2025) to generate roughly $1.1 billion in revenue over eight years by limiting deductions under IRC Section 165(d) to 90% of losses (effective for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025). Multiple reversal efforts, including the FAIR BET Act and FULL HOUSE Act with bipartisan cosponsors from gaming states, plus attempted amendments to appropriations bills, have been blocked by the House Rules Committee or stalled in committee. Senate Republicans have cited budgetary scoring concerns, and no standalone repeal has advanced to a floor vote. As of mid-2026, an IRS hearing on implementing rules drew industry testimony on "phantom income" issues, and lobbying continued (including a May 2026 letter from UFC's Dana White to President Trump), but these have not produced enacted legislation. With only months remaining in the calendar year and competing priorities in a divided Congress, traders view near-term repeal as unlikely absent a sudden procedural breakthrough.