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icon for Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Politics·Taxes

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

icon for Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Politics·Taxes

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

17% chance
Polymarket

$71,489 Vol.

17% chance
Polymarket

$71,489 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 90% cap on gambling loss deductions, enacted as part of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026, remains in place after multiple repeal efforts stalled. Bipartisan bills such as the FAIR BET Act and FULL HOUSE Act, backed by Nevada lawmakers including Rep. Dina Titus and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, sought to restore the prior 100% offset against winnings but were blocked in House Rules Committee votes and failed unanimous consent requests in the Senate. Industry advocacy, including a May 2026 letter from UFC's Dana White to President Trump and July 2026 IRS hearings highlighting "phantom income" concerns, has not produced enacted legislation. With no successful reversal through appropriations packages or standalone measures by September 2026, trader consensus assigns an 83% probability that the cap will persist into 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.

Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,489
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 90% cap on gambling loss deductions, enacted as part of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026, remains in place after multiple repeal efforts stalled. Bipartisan bills such as the FAIR BET Act and FULL HOUSE Act, backed by Nevada lawmakers including Rep. Dina Titus and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, sought to restore the prior 100% offset against winnings but were blocked in House Rules Committee votes and failed unanimous consent requests in the Senate. Industry advocacy, including a May 2026 letter from UFC's Dana White to President Trump and July 2026 IRS hearings highlighting "phantom income" concerns, has not produced enacted legislation. With no successful reversal through appropriations packages or standalone measures by September 2026, trader consensus assigns an 83% probability that the cap will persist into 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.

Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,489
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 17% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 17¢, the market collectively assigns a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" has generated $71.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" is 17% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.