Apple’s imminent September 9 launch of the iPhone 18 series, including its first high-priced foldable model under new CEO John Ternus, stands as the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering tightly between $4–5 trillion by year-end. Current valuation near $4.67 trillion reflects strong recent iPhone demand and services growth, yet faces headwinds from memory-chip supply constraints tied to broader AI demand and cautious guidance. Apple Intelligence features, bolstered by Gemini integration for select capabilities, position the company competitively against rival large language models, though upgrade cycles depend on demonstrated on-device performance and consumer response to premium pricing. Traders weigh the potential hardware refresh momentum against execution risks and margin pressure in the final months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.50-$5.00T 25%
$4.00-$4.50T 22%
$5.00-$5.50T 20%
$3.50-$4.00T 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
5%
$3.50-$4.00T
9%
$4.00-$4.50T
34%
$4.50-$5.00T
25%
$5.00-$5.50T
20%
$5.50-$6.00T
8%
$6.00T+
8%
$4.50-$5.00T 25%
$4.00-$4.50T 22%
$5.00-$5.50T 20%
$3.50-$4.00T 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
$467 Vol.
5%
$3.50-$4.00T
$67 Vol.
9%
$4.00-$4.50T
$626 Vol.
34%
$4.50-$5.00T
$247 Vol.
25%
$5.00-$5.50T
$54 Vol.
20%
$5.50-$6.00T
$157 Vol.
8%
$6.00T+
$109 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s imminent September 9 launch of the iPhone 18 series, including its first high-priced foldable model under new CEO John Ternus, stands as the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering tightly between $4–5 trillion by year-end. Current valuation near $4.67 trillion reflects strong recent iPhone demand and services growth, yet faces headwinds from memory-chip supply constraints tied to broader AI demand and cautious guidance. Apple Intelligence features, bolstered by Gemini integration for select capabilities, position the company competitively against rival large language models, though upgrade cycles depend on demonstrated on-device performance and consumer response to premium pricing. Traders weigh the potential hardware refresh momentum against execution risks and margin pressure in the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,728End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s imminent September 9 launch of the iPhone 18 series, including its first high-priced foldable model under new CEO John Ternus, stands as the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering tightly between $4–5 trillion by year-end. Current valuation near $4.67 trillion reflects strong recent iPhone demand and services growth, yet faces headwinds from memory-chip supply constraints tied to broader AI demand and cautious guidance. Apple Intelligence features, bolstered by Gemini integration for select capabilities, position the company competitively against rival large language models, though upgrade cycles depend on demonstrated on-device performance and consumer response to premium pricing. Traders weigh the potential hardware refresh momentum against execution risks and margin pressure in the final months of 2026.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,728End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s imminent September 9 launch of the iPhone 18 series, including its first high-priced foldable model under new CEO John Ternus, stands as the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering tightly between $4–5 trillion by year-end. Current valuation near $4.67 trillion reflects strong recent iPhone demand and services growth, yet faces headwinds from memory-chip supply constraints tied to broader AI demand and cautious guidance. Apple Intelligence features, bolstered by Gemini integration for select capabilities, position the company competitively against rival large language models, though upgrade cycles depend on demonstrated on-device performance and consumer response to premium pricing. Traders weigh the potential hardware refresh momentum against execution risks and margin pressure in the final months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions