Amazon's current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion reflects robust Q2 2026 results, with net sales rising 20% year-over-year to $200.6 billion and AWS revenue surging 37% to a $169 billion annualized run rate amid accelerating generative AI demand. Trader sentiment for end-2026 levels clusters tightly between the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion brackets because sustained AWS backlog growth and advertising momentum support further expansion, yet elevated capital expenditures near $220 billion and potential multiple compression from macroeconomic uncertainty or retail margin pressures create offsetting risks. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields could further influence implied probabilities by clarifying free-cash-flow trajectories and competitive positioning in cloud infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.50-$3.00T 33%
$3.00-$3.50T 28%
$2.00-$2.50T 20%
$3.50-$4.00T 12%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
4%
$2.00-$2.50T
20%
$2.50-$3.00T
33%
$3.00-$3.50T
28%
$3.50-$4.00T
12%
$4.00-$4.50T
5%
$4.50T+
6%
$2.50-$3.00T 33%
$3.00-$3.50T 28%
$2.00-$2.50T 20%
$3.50-$4.00T 12%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$263 Vol.
4%
$2.00-$2.50T
$363 Vol.
20%
$2.50-$3.00T
$752 Vol.
33%
$3.00-$3.50T
$195 Vol.
28%
$3.50-$4.00T
$245 Vol.
12%
$4.00-$4.50T
$179 Vol.
5%
$4.50T+
$259 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon's current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion reflects robust Q2 2026 results, with net sales rising 20% year-over-year to $200.6 billion and AWS revenue surging 37% to a $169 billion annualized run rate amid accelerating generative AI demand. Trader sentiment for end-2026 levels clusters tightly between the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion brackets because sustained AWS backlog growth and advertising momentum support further expansion, yet elevated capital expenditures near $220 billion and potential multiple compression from macroeconomic uncertainty or retail margin pressures create offsetting risks. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields could further influence implied probabilities by clarifying free-cash-flow trajectories and competitive positioning in cloud infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$2,257End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon's current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion reflects robust Q2 2026 results, with net sales rising 20% year-over-year to $200.6 billion and AWS revenue surging 37% to a $169 billion annualized run rate amid accelerating generative AI demand. Trader sentiment for end-2026 levels clusters tightly between the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion brackets because sustained AWS backlog growth and advertising momentum support further expansion, yet elevated capital expenditures near $220 billion and potential multiple compression from macroeconomic uncertainty or retail margin pressures create offsetting risks. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields could further influence implied probabilities by clarifying free-cash-flow trajectories and competitive positioning in cloud infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$2,257End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon's current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion reflects robust Q2 2026 results, with net sales rising 20% year-over-year to $200.6 billion and AWS revenue surging 37% to a $169 billion annualized run rate amid accelerating generative AI demand. Trader sentiment for end-2026 levels clusters tightly between the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion brackets because sustained AWS backlog growth and advertising momentum support further expansion, yet elevated capital expenditures near $220 billion and potential multiple compression from macroeconomic uncertainty or retail margin pressures create offsetting risks. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in Fed policy or Treasury yields could further influence implied probabilities by clarifying free-cash-flow trajectories and competitive positioning in cloud infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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