Carlos Alcaraz holds the top position in the 2026 US Open winner market at 47.5% implied probability due to his strong return from a wrist injury layoff, recent Grand Slam form, and a manageable draw on the hard courts at Flushing Meadows. Alexander Zverev sits second at 24.5% after claiming the top seed following Jannik Sinner’s knee withdrawal, bolstered by his French Open title and steady advancement despite early five-set battles. Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, and Learner Tien follow at lower probabilities, reflecting solid recent results and American home-crowd support, while the rest of the field trails amid questions over consistency, draw position, and head-to-head records against the leaders. Market pricing captures the wisdom of crowds assessing these variables as the Round of 16 begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Alcaraz 47%
Alexander Zverev 24.5%
Ben Shelton 8.5%
Daniil Medvedev 6.3%
$20,891,620 Vol.
$20,891,620 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
47%
Alexander Zverev
25%
Ben Shelton
9%
Daniil Medvedev
6%
Learner Tien
4%
Frances Tiafoe
2%
Alexander Blockx
1%
Tommy Paul
1%
Alex Michelsen
1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1%
Karen Khachanov
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Luciano Darderi
<1%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
<1%
Casper Ruud
<1%
Carlos Alcaraz 47%
Alexander Zverev 24.5%
Ben Shelton 8.5%
Daniil Medvedev 6.3%
$20,891,620 Vol.
$20,891,620 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
47%
Alexander Zverev
25%
Ben Shelton
9%
Daniil Medvedev
6%
Learner Tien
4%
Frances Tiafoe
2%
Alexander Blockx
1%
Tommy Paul
1%
Alex Michelsen
1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1%
Karen Khachanov
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Luciano Darderi
<1%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
<1%
Casper Ruud
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Carlos Alcaraz holds the top position in the 2026 US Open winner market at 47.5% implied probability due to his strong return from a wrist injury layoff, recent Grand Slam form, and a manageable draw on the hard courts at Flushing Meadows. Alexander Zverev sits second at 24.5% after claiming the top seed following Jannik Sinner’s knee withdrawal, bolstered by his French Open title and steady advancement despite early five-set battles. Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, and Learner Tien follow at lower probabilities, reflecting solid recent results and American home-crowd support, while the rest of the field trails amid questions over consistency, draw position, and head-to-head records against the leaders. Market pricing captures the wisdom of crowds assessing these variables as the Round of 16 begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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