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icon for Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?
Politics·Jews

Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?

icon for Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?
Politics·Jews

Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?

94% chance
Polymarket
NEW
94% chance
Polymarket
NEW
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California lawmakers gave final approval to SB 1387 on August 31, 2026, sending the measure to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk with unanimous support in both the Assembly (62-0) and Senate (38-0). The legislation expands the statutory definition of ethnicity in state demographic data collection to include Jewish identity, requiring agencies that gather ancestry or ethnic-origin information to add a voluntary “Jewish” category alongside existing options. Proponents, including a coalition of Jewish organizations, argue the change improves accuracy in tracking hate crimes, public health metrics, education outcomes, and other indicators for a population often measured only by religion. Newsom has until September 30 to sign or veto the bill, which would take effect in phases starting 2029. Trader consensus at 93% for enactment by year-end reflects the measure’s broad legislative backing and limited procedural hurdles remaining.

California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify.

Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,294
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California lawmakers gave final approval to SB 1387 on August 31, 2026, sending the measure to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk with unanimous support in both the Assembly (62-0) and Senate (38-0). The legislation expands the statutory definition of ethnicity in state demographic data collection to include Jewish identity, requiring agencies that gather ancestry or ethnic-origin information to add a voluntary “Jewish” category alongside existing options. Proponents, including a coalition of Jewish organizations, argue the change improves accuracy in tracking hate crimes, public health metrics, education outcomes, and other indicators for a population often measured only by religion. Newsom has until September 30 to sign or veto the bill, which would take effect in phases starting 2029. Trader consensus at 93% for enactment by year-end reflects the measure’s broad legislative backing and limited procedural hurdles remaining.

California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify.

Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,294
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 94% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 94¢, the market collectively assigns a 94% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" is 94% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 94% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.