Apple faces steep regulatory and capacity barriers to sourcing DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in 2026, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of no purchases. The Chinese firm remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged military ties, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration for clearance while testing CXMT LPDDR5X chips only for China-market devices. CXMT’s production is already fully booked through 2027 by domestic buyers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, with prices comparable to or above those from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix amid the broader AI-driven memory shortage. Political opposition from Congress and limited wafer output further reduce the odds of meaningful volume this year, though any White House exemption or expanded testing results could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28% chance
$19,379 Vol.
$19,379 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
28% chance
$19,379 Vol.
$19,379 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple faces steep regulatory and capacity barriers to sourcing DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in 2026, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of no purchases. The Chinese firm remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged military ties, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration for clearance while testing CXMT LPDDR5X chips only for China-market devices. CXMT’s production is already fully booked through 2027 by domestic buyers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, with prices comparable to or above those from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix amid the broader AI-driven memory shortage. Political opposition from Congress and limited wafer output further reduce the odds of meaningful volume this year, though any White House exemption or expanded testing results could shift sentiment.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$19,379End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple faces steep regulatory and capacity barriers to sourcing DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in 2026, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of no purchases. The Chinese firm remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged military ties, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration for clearance while testing CXMT LPDDR5X chips only for China-market devices. CXMT’s production is already fully booked through 2027 by domestic buyers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, with prices comparable to or above those from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix amid the broader AI-driven memory shortage. Political opposition from Congress and limited wafer output further reduce the odds of meaningful volume this year, though any White House exemption or expanded testing results could shift sentiment.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,379End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple faces steep regulatory and capacity barriers to sourcing DRAM from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in 2026, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of no purchases. The Chinese firm remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged military ties, prompting Apple to lobby the Trump administration for clearance while testing CXMT LPDDR5X chips only for China-market devices. CXMT’s production is already fully booked through 2027 by domestic buyers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, with prices comparable to or above those from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix amid the broader AI-driven memory shortage. Political opposition from Congress and limited wafer output further reduce the odds of meaningful volume this year, though any White House exemption or expanded testing results could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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