The 2026 New Zealand general election on 7 November under the MMP system will determine the next government through coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements, with 62 seats typically needed for a majority in the 120-plus seat Parliament. Recent polling averages show the incumbent centre-right bloc of National, ACT, and NZ First holding a narrow projected edge or tie with the left-leaning opposition of Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori, though results remain volatile within margins of error. The Opportunities Party has surged toward or above the 5% threshold in multiple surveys, creating potential kingmaker dynamics that National has explicitly ruled out partnering with. Minor-party movements, bloc seat projections, and late campaign shifts will heavily influence whether the current coalition retains power or a new combination forms after results. Advance voting begins in late October, with official outcomes expected in late November.