Recent strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 50-60%, with Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing inflation control over easing. The S&P 500 trades near 7,718 as of September 4, within 1.3% of its August high of 7,816, supported by robust corporate earnings growth but tempered by 10-year Treasury yields holding above 4.7% and September's historical seasonal weakness. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases on September 10-11 will provide key signals on inflation trajectory before the policy decision, while ongoing geopolitical tensions add upside risk to energy prices and cost pressures. Trader positioning reflects this balance between earnings momentum and tighter policy expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$61,474 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
↑ $830
3%
↑ $820
3%
↑ $810
6%
↑ $800
13%
↑ $790
23%
↑ $780
54%
↑ $770
91%
↓ $760
64%
↓ $750
38%
↓ $740
24%
↓ $730
17%
↓ $720
14%
↓ $710
8%
↓ $700
3%
$61,474 Vol.
↑ $830
$88 Vol.
3%
↑ $820
$514 Vol.
3%
↑ $810
$612 Vol.
6%
↑ $800
$1,595 Vol.
13%
↑ $790
$3,509 Vol.
23%
↑ $780
$2,406 Vol.
54%
↑ $770
$0 Vol.
91%
↓ $760
$1,266 Vol.
64%
↓ $750
$14,171 Vol.
38%
↓ $740
$14,124 Vol.
24%
↓ $730
$6,160 Vol.
17%
↓ $720
$4,072 Vol.
14%
↓ $710
$2,550 Vol.
8%
↓ $700
$5,144 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during September 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Recent strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 50-60%, with Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing inflation control over easing. The S&P 500 trades near 7,718 as of September 4, within 1.3% of its August high of 7,816, supported by robust corporate earnings growth but tempered by 10-year Treasury yields holding above 4.7% and September's historical seasonal weakness. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases on September 10-11 will provide key signals on inflation trajectory before the policy decision, while ongoing geopolitical tensions add upside risk to energy prices and cost pressures. Trader positioning reflects this balance between earnings momentum and tighter policy expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during September 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Volume
$61,474End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during September 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Recent strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 50-60%, with Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing inflation control over easing. The S&P 500 trades near 7,718 as of September 4, within 1.3% of its August high of 7,816, supported by robust corporate earnings growth but tempered by 10-year Treasury yields holding above 4.7% and September's historical seasonal weakness. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases on September 10-11 will provide key signals on inflation trajectory before the policy decision, while ongoing geopolitical tensions add upside risk to energy prices and cost pressures. Trader positioning reflects this balance between earnings momentum and tighter policy expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during September 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Volume
$61,474End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 50-60%, with Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing inflation control over easing. The S&P 500 trades near 7,718 as of September 4, within 1.3% of its August high of 7,816, supported by robust corporate earnings growth but tempered by 10-year Treasury yields holding above 4.7% and September's historical seasonal weakness. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases on September 10-11 will provide key signals on inflation trajectory before the policy decision, while ongoing geopolitical tensions add upside risk to energy prices and cost pressures. Trader positioning reflects this balance between earnings momentum and tighter policy expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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