Recent polling across Victoria shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years of Labor government and concerns over spending, debt, and community safety. One Nation’s primary vote surge to the low-to-mid 20s has placed it ahead of or level with Labor in several surveys, though its preferences are expected to flow strongly to the Coalition. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking the One Nation helm in August, have produced only marginal shifts in primary support. With the November 28 election approaching, these trends have positioned the Coalition as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments while leaving Labor’s path to retaining government narrow and dependent on late swings or favorable preference flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 75%
Labor 22%
One Nation 5.5%
Greens <1%
$13,193 Vol.
$13,193 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
75%
Labor
22%
One Nation
5%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 75%
Labor 22%
One Nation 5.5%
Greens <1%
$13,193 Vol.
$13,193 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,829 Vol.
75%
Labor
$2,850 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$2,903 Vol.
5%
Greens
$611 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across Victoria shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years of Labor government and concerns over spending, debt, and community safety. One Nation’s primary vote surge to the low-to-mid 20s has placed it ahead of or level with Labor in several surveys, though its preferences are expected to flow strongly to the Coalition. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking the One Nation helm in August, have produced only marginal shifts in primary support. With the November 28 election approaching, these trends have positioned the Coalition as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments while leaving Labor’s path to retaining government narrow and dependent on late swings or favorable preference flows.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,193End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across Victoria shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years of Labor government and concerns over spending, debt, and community safety. One Nation’s primary vote surge to the low-to-mid 20s has placed it ahead of or level with Labor in several surveys, though its preferences are expected to flow strongly to the Coalition. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking the One Nation helm in August, have produced only marginal shifts in primary support. With the November 28 election approaching, these trends have positioned the Coalition as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments while leaving Labor’s path to retaining government narrow and dependent on late swings or favorable preference flows.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$13,193End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across Victoria shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 percent, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years of Labor government and concerns over spending, debt, and community safety. One Nation’s primary vote surge to the low-to-mid 20s has placed it ahead of or level with Labor in several surveys, though its preferences are expected to flow strongly to the Coalition. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking the One Nation helm in August, have produced only marginal shifts in primary support. With the November 28 election approaching, these trends have positioned the Coalition as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments while leaving Labor’s path to retaining government narrow and dependent on late swings or favorable preference flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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