Trader sentiment for Q3 2026 US GDP growth shows notable dispersion, with the ≥3.0% outcome leading at a 31.5% implied probability, followed closely by the 2.0–2.5% range at 26.0%. This reflects ongoing resilience in consumer spending and services activity alongside signs of labor market moderation and persistent inflation pressures that could limit further acceleration. Federal Reserve policy expectations, shaped by recent employment and price data releases, remain a key swing factor, as do potential fiscal developments. Upcoming monthly indicators on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing will likely drive shifts in these probabilities before the quarter concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 25%
1.5–2.0% 12%
$23,977 Vol.
$23,977 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
25%
≥3.0%
32%
≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 25%
1.5–2.0% 12%
$23,977 Vol.
$23,977 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$821 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$565 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$663 Vol.
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,810 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,316 Vol.
25%
≥3.0%
$16,316 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for Q3 2026 US GDP growth shows notable dispersion, with the ≥3.0% outcome leading at a 31.5% implied probability, followed closely by the 2.0–2.5% range at 26.0%. This reflects ongoing resilience in consumer spending and services activity alongside signs of labor market moderation and persistent inflation pressures that could limit further acceleration. Federal Reserve policy expectations, shaped by recent employment and price data releases, remain a key swing factor, as do potential fiscal developments. Upcoming monthly indicators on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing will likely drive shifts in these probabilities before the quarter concludes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,977End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for Q3 2026 US GDP growth shows notable dispersion, with the ≥3.0% outcome leading at a 31.5% implied probability, followed closely by the 2.0–2.5% range at 26.0%. This reflects ongoing resilience in consumer spending and services activity alongside signs of labor market moderation and persistent inflation pressures that could limit further acceleration. Federal Reserve policy expectations, shaped by recent employment and price data releases, remain a key swing factor, as do potential fiscal developments. Upcoming monthly indicators on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing will likely drive shifts in these probabilities before the quarter concludes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,977End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Q3 2026 US GDP growth shows notable dispersion, with the ≥3.0% outcome leading at a 31.5% implied probability, followed closely by the 2.0–2.5% range at 26.0%. This reflects ongoing resilience in consumer spending and services activity alongside signs of labor market moderation and persistent inflation pressures that could limit further acceleration. Federal Reserve policy expectations, shaped by recent employment and price data releases, remain a key swing factor, as do potential fiscal developments. Upcoming monthly indicators on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing will likely drive shifts in these probabilities before the quarter concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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