Recent data releases and high-frequency nowcasts have lifted trader expectations for Q3 2026 GDP, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracking 4.7 percent as of September 3 amid stronger consumer spending and AI-driven business investment. This follows Q2’s confirmed 1.5 percent annualized pace, down from 2.1 percent in Q1, creating a rebound narrative that supports the 31.5 percent market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0 percent. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed panel, now project 2.5 percent for the quarter, while Bloomberg economist surveys align around the same level, reflecting resilient personal consumption expenditures and equipment outlays that offset softer housing and government components. With outcomes clustered between 2.0–3.0 percent holding roughly 50 percent combined probability, sentiment hinges on incoming monthly indicators such as retail sales, ISM surveys, and labor data that could shift the final BEA advance estimate due in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 25%
1.5–2.0% 12%
$23,977 Vol.
$23,977 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
25%
≥3.0%
33%
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 25%
1.5–2.0% 12%
$23,977 Vol.
$23,977 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$821 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$565 Vol.
6%
1.5–2.0%
$663 Vol.
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,810 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,316 Vol.
25%
≥3.0%
$16,316 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases and high-frequency nowcasts have lifted trader expectations for Q3 2026 GDP, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracking 4.7 percent as of September 3 amid stronger consumer spending and AI-driven business investment. This follows Q2’s confirmed 1.5 percent annualized pace, down from 2.1 percent in Q1, creating a rebound narrative that supports the 31.5 percent market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0 percent. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed panel, now project 2.5 percent for the quarter, while Bloomberg economist surveys align around the same level, reflecting resilient personal consumption expenditures and equipment outlays that offset softer housing and government components. With outcomes clustered between 2.0–3.0 percent holding roughly 50 percent combined probability, sentiment hinges on incoming monthly indicators such as retail sales, ISM surveys, and labor data that could shift the final BEA advance estimate due in late October.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,977End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases and high-frequency nowcasts have lifted trader expectations for Q3 2026 GDP, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracking 4.7 percent as of September 3 amid stronger consumer spending and AI-driven business investment. This follows Q2’s confirmed 1.5 percent annualized pace, down from 2.1 percent in Q1, creating a rebound narrative that supports the 31.5 percent market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0 percent. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed panel, now project 2.5 percent for the quarter, while Bloomberg economist surveys align around the same level, reflecting resilient personal consumption expenditures and equipment outlays that offset softer housing and government components. With outcomes clustered between 2.0–3.0 percent holding roughly 50 percent combined probability, sentiment hinges on incoming monthly indicators such as retail sales, ISM surveys, and labor data that could shift the final BEA advance estimate due in late October.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,977End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data releases and high-frequency nowcasts have lifted trader expectations for Q3 2026 GDP, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracking 4.7 percent as of September 3 amid stronger consumer spending and AI-driven business investment. This follows Q2’s confirmed 1.5 percent annualized pace, down from 2.1 percent in Q1, creating a rebound narrative that supports the 31.5 percent market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0 percent. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed panel, now project 2.5 percent for the quarter, while Bloomberg economist surveys align around the same level, reflecting resilient personal consumption expenditures and equipment outlays that offset softer housing and government components. With outcomes clustered between 2.0–3.0 percent holding roughly 50 percent combined probability, sentiment hinges on incoming monthly indicators such as retail sales, ISM surveys, and labor data that could shift the final BEA advance estimate due in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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