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icon for UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
Economy·UK

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

icon for UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
Economy·UK

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

Nov 12

Nov 12

0.2–0.3% 44%

0.4–0.5% 27%

0.0–0.1% 18%

Negative 6%

Polymarket

$18,307 Vol.

0.2–0.3% 44%

0.4–0.5% 27%

0.0–0.1% 18%

Negative 6%

Polymarket

$18,307 Vol.

Negative

$3,955 Vol.

6%

0.0–0.1%

$5,412 Vol.

18%

0.2–0.3%

$6,574 Vol.

44%

0.4–0.5%

$1,673 Vol.

27%

0.6–0.7%

$265 Vol.

5%

0.8–0.9%

$196 Vol.

2%

1.0%+

$232 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and Bank of England projections point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Q2 expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, but underlying momentum has weakened with services leading modest gains while construction and production lagged. The BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects near-zero underlying growth in Q3 as elevated energy costs erode real incomes, heighten uncertainty, and tighten financial conditions, with CPI inflation expected to rise toward 3.2% by year-end. Independent forecasters’ median estimate for Q3 QoQ stands at 0.2%, consistent with market-implied odds favoring the 0.2–0.3% bin. Bank Rate remains at 3.75% pending further inflation and labor-market data.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,307
End Date
Nov 12, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and Bank of England projections point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Q2 expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, but underlying momentum has weakened with services leading modest gains while construction and production lagged. The BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects near-zero underlying growth in Q3 as elevated energy costs erode real incomes, heighten uncertainty, and tighten financial conditions, with CPI inflation expected to rise toward 3.2% by year-end. Independent forecasters’ median estimate for Q3 QoQ stands at 0.2%, consistent with market-implied odds favoring the 0.2–0.3% bin. Bank Rate remains at 3.75% pending further inflation and labor-market data.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,307
End Date
Nov 12, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.2–0.3%" at 44%, followed by "0.4–0.5%" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?" has generated $18.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?" is "0.2–0.3%" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0.4–0.5%" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.