The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to Cook County’s and Connecticut’s AR-15-style rifle bans has become the dominant factor shaping trader views. With arguments set for the October 2026 term and a decision expected by mid-2027, the 6-3 conservative majority’s recent Second Amendment expansions under the Bruen framework, combined with statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh signaling that these semiautomatic rifles qualify as arms “in common use” for lawful purposes, tilt the trader consensus slightly toward invalidation. Lower courts had upheld the bans, but the Court’s willingness to review them now creates a realistic path for reversal. Remaining uncertainty centers on how Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett will align, leaving the outcome closely contested.