**Recent statements from the court's senior members have anchored trader expectations of continuity through 2026.** In August, Justice Samuel Alito, 76, publicly confirmed plans to serve at least through the upcoming term that begins in October 2026 and runs into mid-2027, directly addressing and dismissing retirement speculation. Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, has likewise shown no signs of stepping down while pursuing a longevity milestone in 2028. The remaining seven justices, ranging in age from 54 to 72, have given no public indications of departure. With no vacancies currently open and no scheduled retirement announcements or reported health developments that would trigger one, the 80% probability assigned to “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed catalyst for a seat opening before year-end. Midterm Senate outcomes could affect future confirmations but do not alter the near-term outlook for 2026 itself.