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icon for Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Politics·Pierre

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

icon for Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Politics·Pierre

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

22% chance
Polymarket

$157,655 Vol.

22% chance
Polymarket

$157,655 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Pierre Poilievre remains Conservative leader following an 87.4% endorsement in the January 2026 leadership review at the Calgary convention, triggered after the party’s 2025 election defeat to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals.** He has since returned to the House via by-election, reshuffled his shadow cabinet, and maintained focus on affordability and opposition messaging despite several MP defections and recent byelection setbacks. No organized challenge or formal review process is underway, and the next federal election remains years distant. These factors underpin trader expectations that Poilievre will continue leading the party through the end of 2026, with internal criticism and polling weakness yet to translate into an imminent leadership change.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,655
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Pierre Poilievre remains Conservative leader following an 87.4% endorsement in the January 2026 leadership review at the Calgary convention, triggered after the party’s 2025 election defeat to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals.** He has since returned to the House via by-election, reshuffled his shadow cabinet, and maintained focus on affordability and opposition messaging despite several MP defections and recent byelection setbacks. No organized challenge or formal review process is underway, and the next federal election remains years distant. These factors underpin trader expectations that Poilievre will continue leading the party through the end of 2026, with internal criticism and polling weakness yet to translate into an imminent leadership change.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,655
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 22% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 22¢, the market collectively assigns a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" has generated $157.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" is 22% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.