Recent Q2 2026 data showed Mexico's GDP expanding 1.4% quarter-over-quarter—revised slightly lower but still marking the strongest sequential gain since late 2020—after a 0.6% contraction in Q1, with year-over-year growth reaching 2.1%. This rebound, driven by construction, manufacturing, and services, has supported trader consensus around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3 amid fading transitory boosts such as the FIFA World Cup. Offsetting factors include softening domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty and external trade risks, and Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% given persistent core inflation near 4%. Analyst surveys have edged full-year 2026 forecasts modestly higher to the 1.2-1.5% range, yet downside risks from weak consumption and governance concerns keep the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins closely matched as the most probable outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5-2.0% 34%
2.0-2.5% 28%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 15%
$25,467 Vol.
$25,467 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
15%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
28%
2.5-3.0%
20%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
1%
1.5-2.0% 34%
2.0-2.5% 28%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 15%
$25,467 Vol.
$25,467 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$452 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$338 Vol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,390 Vol.
15%
1.5-2.0%
$8,426 Vol.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$10,890 Vol.
28%
2.5-3.0%
$1,119 Vol.
20%
3.0-3.5%
$418 Vol.
2%
3.5%+
$433 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 data showed Mexico's GDP expanding 1.4% quarter-over-quarter—revised slightly lower but still marking the strongest sequential gain since late 2020—after a 0.6% contraction in Q1, with year-over-year growth reaching 2.1%. This rebound, driven by construction, manufacturing, and services, has supported trader consensus around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3 amid fading transitory boosts such as the FIFA World Cup. Offsetting factors include softening domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty and external trade risks, and Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% given persistent core inflation near 4%. Analyst surveys have edged full-year 2026 forecasts modestly higher to the 1.2-1.5% range, yet downside risks from weak consumption and governance concerns keep the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins closely matched as the most probable outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$25,467End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 data showed Mexico's GDP expanding 1.4% quarter-over-quarter—revised slightly lower but still marking the strongest sequential gain since late 2020—after a 0.6% contraction in Q1, with year-over-year growth reaching 2.1%. This rebound, driven by construction, manufacturing, and services, has supported trader consensus around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3 amid fading transitory boosts such as the FIFA World Cup. Offsetting factors include softening domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty and external trade risks, and Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% given persistent core inflation near 4%. Analyst surveys have edged full-year 2026 forecasts modestly higher to the 1.2-1.5% range, yet downside risks from weak consumption and governance concerns keep the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins closely matched as the most probable outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,467End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 data showed Mexico's GDP expanding 1.4% quarter-over-quarter—revised slightly lower but still marking the strongest sequential gain since late 2020—after a 0.6% contraction in Q1, with year-over-year growth reaching 2.1%. This rebound, driven by construction, manufacturing, and services, has supported trader consensus around 1.5-2.5% growth for Q3 amid fading transitory boosts such as the FIFA World Cup. Offsetting factors include softening domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty and external trade risks, and Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% given persistent core inflation near 4%. Analyst surveys have edged full-year 2026 forecasts modestly higher to the 1.2-1.5% range, yet downside risks from weak consumption and governance concerns keep the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins closely matched as the most probable outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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