Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP softened to a preliminary 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (1.1% annualized), below expectations, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and weaker capital spending, while net exports added 0.5 points. Markets now price the September 8 revision near 0.4% q/q and 1.6% annualized. For Q3, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized amid mixed signals: Bank of Japan policy held at 1.0% with hawkish guidance on upside inflation risks from yen weakness and Middle East-driven oil prices, record yen-buying interventions exceeding ¥15 trillion in July–August, and resilient AI-related export demand offset by household cost pressures. These factors sustain uncertainty, keeping probabilities for low-positive versus flat-to-negative outcomes closely contested ahead of September data releases and the next policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.8%–1.6% 26%
0.0%–0.8% 21.0%
-0.8%–0.0% 15%
1.6%–2.4% 11.2%
$24,125 Vol.
$24,125 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
15%
0.0%–0.8%
21%
0.8%–1.6%
26%
1.6%–2.4%
11%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
4%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 26%
0.0%–0.8% 21.0%
-0.8%–0.0% 15%
1.6%–2.4% 11.2%
$24,125 Vol.
$24,125 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$338 Vol.
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,096 Vol.
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$261 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,194 Vol.
15%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,749 Vol.
21%
0.8%–1.6%
$1,797 Vol.
26%
1.6%–2.4%
$635 Vol.
11%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,328 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,204 Vol.
4%
4.0%+
$521 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP softened to a preliminary 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (1.1% annualized), below expectations, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and weaker capital spending, while net exports added 0.5 points. Markets now price the September 8 revision near 0.4% q/q and 1.6% annualized. For Q3, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized amid mixed signals: Bank of Japan policy held at 1.0% with hawkish guidance on upside inflation risks from yen weakness and Middle East-driven oil prices, record yen-buying interventions exceeding ¥15 trillion in July–August, and resilient AI-related export demand offset by household cost pressures. These factors sustain uncertainty, keeping probabilities for low-positive versus flat-to-negative outcomes closely contested ahead of September data releases and the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$24,125End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP softened to a preliminary 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (1.1% annualized), below expectations, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and weaker capital spending, while net exports added 0.5 points. Markets now price the September 8 revision near 0.4% q/q and 1.6% annualized. For Q3, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized amid mixed signals: Bank of Japan policy held at 1.0% with hawkish guidance on upside inflation risks from yen weakness and Middle East-driven oil prices, record yen-buying interventions exceeding ¥15 trillion in July–August, and resilient AI-related export demand offset by household cost pressures. These factors sustain uncertainty, keeping probabilities for low-positive versus flat-to-negative outcomes closely contested ahead of September data releases and the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$24,125End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP softened to a preliminary 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (1.1% annualized), below expectations, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and weaker capital spending, while net exports added 0.5 points. Markets now price the September 8 revision near 0.4% q/q and 1.6% annualized. For Q3, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized amid mixed signals: Bank of Japan policy held at 1.0% with hawkish guidance on upside inflation risks from yen weakness and Middle East-driven oil prices, record yen-buying interventions exceeding ¥15 trillion in July–August, and resilient AI-related export demand offset by household cost pressures. These factors sustain uncertainty, keeping probabilities for low-positive versus flat-to-negative outcomes closely contested ahead of September data releases and the next policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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