Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the succession under wartime conditions and an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and Guardian Council jurist managing the transition. The new leader has since appointed hardline military figures to senior IRGC and armed forces posts, reinforcing regime cohesion amid ongoing conflict and sanctions. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm Mojtaba’s active involvement and health, while reports note his limited public profile and possible reliance on Revolutionary Guard structures. Trader probabilities for near-term removal remain low, reflecting the absence of major defections, successful internal challenges, or verified incapacitation since the March election. Key variables include sustained external pressure, economic conditions, and any shifts in IRGC or clerical alignment ahead of scheduled resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,024,355 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
September 30
3%
October 31
6%
November 30
9%
December 31
15%
June 30, 2027
25%
$25,024,355 Vol.
September 30
$1,000,825 Vol.
3%
October 31
$69,428 Vol.
6%
November 30
$35,300 Vol.
9%
December 31
$4,370,825 Vol.
15%
June 30, 2027
$260,840 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the succession under wartime conditions and an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and Guardian Council jurist managing the transition. The new leader has since appointed hardline military figures to senior IRGC and armed forces posts, reinforcing regime cohesion amid ongoing conflict and sanctions. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm Mojtaba’s active involvement and health, while reports note his limited public profile and possible reliance on Revolutionary Guard structures. Trader probabilities for near-term removal remain low, reflecting the absence of major defections, successful internal challenges, or verified incapacitation since the March election. Key variables include sustained external pressure, economic conditions, and any shifts in IRGC or clerical alignment ahead of scheduled resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$25,024,355End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the succession under wartime conditions and an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and Guardian Council jurist managing the transition. The new leader has since appointed hardline military figures to senior IRGC and armed forces posts, reinforcing regime cohesion amid ongoing conflict and sanctions. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm Mojtaba’s active involvement and health, while reports note his limited public profile and possible reliance on Revolutionary Guard structures. Trader probabilities for near-term removal remain low, reflecting the absence of major defections, successful internal challenges, or verified incapacitation since the March election. Key variables include sustained external pressure, economic conditions, and any shifts in IRGC or clerical alignment ahead of scheduled resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,024,355End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March 2026 after his father’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the succession under wartime conditions and an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and Guardian Council jurist managing the transition. The new leader has since appointed hardline military figures to senior IRGC and armed forces posts, reinforcing regime cohesion amid ongoing conflict and sanctions. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm Mojtaba’s active involvement and health, while reports note his limited public profile and possible reliance on Revolutionary Guard structures. Trader probabilities for near-term removal remain low, reflecting the absence of major defections, successful internal challenges, or verified incapacitation since the March election. Key variables include sustained external pressure, economic conditions, and any shifts in IRGC or clerical alignment ahead of scheduled resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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