Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 followed the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, yet his prolonged absence from public view has fueled questions about his de facto authority. Reports indicate limited or brief interactions with President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials, alongside speculation over health or security constraints, while the IRGC and a collective interim arrangement involving the president, parliament speaker, judiciary chief, and military figures have assumed greater day-to-day influence. Ongoing ceasefire talks, economic pressures, and clerical doubts about the succession process remain key variables that could affect regime continuity through late 2026 and into 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,036,155 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
3%
October 31
6%
November 30
9%
December 31
15%
June 30, 2027
25%
$25,036,155 Vol.
September 30
$1,002,842 Vol.
3%
October 31
$70,741 Vol.
6%
November 30
$35,311 Vol.
9%
December 31
$4,378,913 Vol.
15%
June 30, 2027
$261,213 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 followed the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, yet his prolonged absence from public view has fueled questions about his de facto authority. Reports indicate limited or brief interactions with President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials, alongside speculation over health or security constraints, while the IRGC and a collective interim arrangement involving the president, parliament speaker, judiciary chief, and military figures have assumed greater day-to-day influence. Ongoing ceasefire talks, economic pressures, and clerical doubts about the succession process remain key variables that could affect regime continuity through late 2026 and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$25,036,155End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 followed the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, yet his prolonged absence from public view has fueled questions about his de facto authority. Reports indicate limited or brief interactions with President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials, alongside speculation over health or security constraints, while the IRGC and a collective interim arrangement involving the president, parliament speaker, judiciary chief, and military figures have assumed greater day-to-day influence. Ongoing ceasefire talks, economic pressures, and clerical doubts about the succession process remain key variables that could affect regime continuity through late 2026 and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,036,155End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026 followed the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, yet his prolonged absence from public view has fueled questions about his de facto authority. Reports indicate limited or brief interactions with President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials, alongside speculation over health or security constraints, while the IRGC and a collective interim arrangement involving the president, parliament speaker, judiciary chief, and military figures have assumed greater day-to-day influence. Ongoing ceasefire talks, economic pressures, and clerical doubts about the succession process remain key variables that could affect regime continuity through late 2026 and into 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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