President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 in 2026, primarily to address protests against federal immigration enforcement operations involving ICE and Border Patrol agents. The most prominent episodes occurred in January in Minnesota following shootings during enforcement actions that sparked demonstrations. No formal invocation has occurred despite these statements, and state-federal coordination later eased immediate tensions. Traders assess low odds of invocation by year-end due to the absence of widespread insurrection-level disorder meeting statutory thresholds, ongoing court scrutiny of related National Guard federalization efforts, and the availability of alternative authorities. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift dynamics if protests or enforcement disputes escalate.