The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54-4.55%, has been driven higher by a resilient labor market—August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000—and sticky inflation, with core CPI near 2.5% and headline readings elevated by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply, alongside AI-driven corporate borrowing, have lifted term premium and reduced the safety bid for longer-duration debt. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has adopted a hawkish hold-or-hike bias, with market-implied odds of a September rate increase rising after the jobs data. Upcoming September CPI and the mid-month FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end or remain range-bound above 4%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 30, 2026
Below 4.50%
62%
Below 4.45%
50%
Below 4.40%
50%
Below 4.35%
50%
Below 4.30%
50%
Below 4.25%
50%
Below 4.20%
50%
Below 4.10%
43%
Below 4.00%
36%
$0.00 Vol.
Below 4.50%
$0 Vol.
62%
Below 4.45%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.40%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.35%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.30%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.25%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.20%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.10%
$0 Vol.
43%
Below 4.00%
$0 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54-4.55%, has been driven higher by a resilient labor market—August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000—and sticky inflation, with core CPI near 2.5% and headline readings elevated by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply, alongside AI-driven corporate borrowing, have lifted term premium and reduced the safety bid for longer-duration debt. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has adopted a hawkish hold-or-hike bias, with market-implied odds of a September rate increase rising after the jobs data. Upcoming September CPI and the mid-month FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end or remain range-bound above 4%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54-4.55%, has been driven higher by a resilient labor market—August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000—and sticky inflation, with core CPI near 2.5% and headline readings elevated by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply, alongside AI-driven corporate borrowing, have lifted term premium and reduced the safety bid for longer-duration debt. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has adopted a hawkish hold-or-hike bias, with market-implied odds of a September rate increase rising after the jobs data. Upcoming September CPI and the mid-month FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end or remain range-bound above 4%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.54-4.55%, has been driven higher by a resilient labor market—August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000—and sticky inflation, with core CPI near 2.5% and headline readings elevated by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply, alongside AI-driven corporate borrowing, have lifted term premium and reduced the safety bid for longer-duration debt. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has adopted a hawkish hold-or-hike bias, with market-implied odds of a September rate increase rising after the jobs data. Upcoming September CPI and the mid-month FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end or remain range-bound above 4%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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