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icon for Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Economy·GDP

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

icon for Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Economy·GDP

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Oct 30

Oct 30

1.0-1.2% 47%

0.7-0.9% 24%

1.3%+ 18%

≤0.0% 6.4%

Polymarket

$33,190 Vol.

1.0-1.2% 47%

0.7-0.9% 24%

1.3%+ 18%

≤0.0% 6.4%

Polymarket

$33,190 Vol.

≤0.0%

$1,310 Vol.

6%

0.1-0.3%

$1,434 Vol.

1%

0.4-0.6%

$690 Vol.

5%

0.7-0.9%

$5,656 Vol.

24%

1.0-1.2%

$19,861 Vol.

47%

1.3%+

$4,238 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent stronger-than-expected German GDP readings, with Q1 revised to +0.4% QoQ and Q2 at +0.3% QoQ driven by exports, have lifted full-year 2026 forecasts to 1.0–1.4% across institutions including the Kiel Institute and ifo. This momentum, alongside expansionary fiscal policy on infrastructure and defense, underpins the 39.5% market-implied probability on 1.0–1.2% YoY growth for Q3. Elevated energy-driven inflation near 2.7–2.9% and low Rhine water levels that trimmed Q3 output by an estimated 0.2% cap upside, supporting the secondary 14.0% odds on 1.3%+. Geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions and structural competitiveness issues sustain modest probabilities on sub-1% outcomes while highlighting the fragile recovery.

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,190
End Date
Oct 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent stronger-than-expected German GDP readings, with Q1 revised to +0.4% QoQ and Q2 at +0.3% QoQ driven by exports, have lifted full-year 2026 forecasts to 1.0–1.4% across institutions including the Kiel Institute and ifo. This momentum, alongside expansionary fiscal policy on infrastructure and defense, underpins the 39.5% market-implied probability on 1.0–1.2% YoY growth for Q3. Elevated energy-driven inflation near 2.7–2.9% and low Rhine water levels that trimmed Q3 output by an estimated 0.2% cap upside, supporting the secondary 14.0% odds on 1.3%+. Geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions and structural competitiveness issues sustain modest probabilities on sub-1% outcomes while highlighting the fragile recovery.

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,190
End Date
Oct 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.0-1.2%" at 47%, followed by "0.7-0.9%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?" has generated $33.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?" is "1.0-1.2%" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0.7-0.9%" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.