Recent weak July activity data—industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missing forecasts—have pulled early Q3 estimates toward 4.0–4.2 percent year-on-year, below the 4.5–5.0 percent official target range and following Q2’s 4.3 percent print. Persistent softness in domestic demand and property investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports and high-tech supply chains provide partial offset. Market-implied odds cluster in the 4.3–4.9 percent bands, reflecting trader expectations that accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted stimulus in the second half will stabilize growth near the lower end of official goals. Key near-term catalysts include September activity releases and any further policy signals ahead of the Q3 GDP print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 46%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$32,916 Vol.
$32,916 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
46%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 46%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$32,916 Vol.
$32,916 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,221 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,334 Vol.
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,516 Vol.
46%
4.6-4.9%
$8,763 Vol.
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,349 Vol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$1,476 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent weak July activity data—industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missing forecasts—have pulled early Q3 estimates toward 4.0–4.2 percent year-on-year, below the 4.5–5.0 percent official target range and following Q2’s 4.3 percent print. Persistent softness in domestic demand and property investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports and high-tech supply chains provide partial offset. Market-implied odds cluster in the 4.3–4.9 percent bands, reflecting trader expectations that accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted stimulus in the second half will stabilize growth near the lower end of official goals. Key near-term catalysts include September activity releases and any further policy signals ahead of the Q3 GDP print.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$32,916End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent weak July activity data—industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missing forecasts—have pulled early Q3 estimates toward 4.0–4.2 percent year-on-year, below the 4.5–5.0 percent official target range and following Q2’s 4.3 percent print. Persistent softness in domestic demand and property investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports and high-tech supply chains provide partial offset. Market-implied odds cluster in the 4.3–4.9 percent bands, reflecting trader expectations that accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted stimulus in the second half will stabilize growth near the lower end of official goals. Key near-term catalysts include September activity releases and any further policy signals ahead of the Q3 GDP print.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$32,916End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weak July activity data—industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missing forecasts—have pulled early Q3 estimates toward 4.0–4.2 percent year-on-year, below the 4.5–5.0 percent official target range and following Q2’s 4.3 percent print. Persistent softness in domestic demand and property investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports and high-tech supply chains provide partial offset. Market-implied odds cluster in the 4.3–4.9 percent bands, reflecting trader expectations that accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted stimulus in the second half will stabilize growth near the lower end of official goals. Key near-term catalysts include September activity releases and any further policy signals ahead of the Q3 GDP print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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