China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% buckets highest at 45% and 33.5% implied probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print and softening early-Q3 momentum. July industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missed forecasts amid weak domestic demand and extreme weather, prompting Goldman Sachs to flag an early-Q3 pace near 4%. Resilient exports and high-tech supply chains have provided some offset, while August manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8 yet remained in contraction. Traders are incorporating expectations for accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted policy support ahead of the October data release, with consensus forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.6% and limited room for outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 45%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 18.4%
3.7-4.0% 3.4%
$33,547 Vol.
$33,547 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
3%
4.0-4.3%
18%
4.3-4.6%
45%
4.6-4.9%
34%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 45%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 18.4%
3.7-4.0% 3.4%
$33,547 Vol.
$33,547 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,297 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,326 Vol.
3%
4.0-4.3%
$2,404 Vol.
18%
4.3-4.6%
$12,622 Vol.
45%
4.6-4.9%
$8,853 Vol.
34%
4.9-5.2%
$3,425 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$1,537 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,390 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% buckets highest at 45% and 33.5% implied probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print and softening early-Q3 momentum. July industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missed forecasts amid weak domestic demand and extreme weather, prompting Goldman Sachs to flag an early-Q3 pace near 4%. Resilient exports and high-tech supply chains have provided some offset, while August manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8 yet remained in contraction. Traders are incorporating expectations for accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted policy support ahead of the October data release, with consensus forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.6% and limited room for outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$33,547End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% buckets highest at 45% and 33.5% implied probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print and softening early-Q3 momentum. July industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missed forecasts amid weak domestic demand and extreme weather, prompting Goldman Sachs to flag an early-Q3 pace near 4%. Resilient exports and high-tech supply chains have provided some offset, while August manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8 yet remained in contraction. Traders are incorporating expectations for accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted policy support ahead of the October data release, with consensus forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.6% and limited room for outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$33,547End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% and 4.6–4.9% buckets highest at 45% and 33.5% implied probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print and softening early-Q3 momentum. July industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missed forecasts amid weak domestic demand and extreme weather, prompting Goldman Sachs to flag an early-Q3 pace near 4%. Resilient exports and high-tech supply chains have provided some offset, while August manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8 yet remained in contraction. Traders are incorporating expectations for accelerated fiscal bond issuance and targeted policy support ahead of the October data release, with consensus forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.6% and limited room for outcomes above 5% or below 4%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions