China's 2026 GDP growth has centered on the official 4.5–5.0% target amid resilient exports in AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and high-tech products offsetting subdued domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector adjustment. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion before Q2 momentum eased to around 4.3–4.5% due to weaker retail sales and fixed-asset investment, with external demand providing the primary buffer. Policymakers have signaled incremental fiscal support and domestic demand measures without aggressive monetary easing, while international forecasts from the IMF and others cluster near 4.4–4.7%. This combination of structural headwinds and targeted policy has aligned trader consensus with the 4.0–5.0% bracket as the most probable outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 6.3%
9.0%+ 1.4%
8.0–9.0% 1.3%
$897,506 Vol.
$897,506 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
90%
5.0–6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
1%
4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 6.3%
9.0%+ 1.4%
8.0–9.0% 1.3%
$897,506 Vol.
$897,506 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$67,675 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$75,259 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$45,793 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,404 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$222,267 Vol.
90%
5.0–6.0%
$80,831 Vol.
6%
6.0-7.0%
$87,941 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$54,234 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$116,748 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth has centered on the official 4.5–5.0% target amid resilient exports in AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and high-tech products offsetting subdued domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector adjustment. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion before Q2 momentum eased to around 4.3–4.5% due to weaker retail sales and fixed-asset investment, with external demand providing the primary buffer. Policymakers have signaled incremental fiscal support and domestic demand measures without aggressive monetary easing, while international forecasts from the IMF and others cluster near 4.4–4.7%. This combination of structural headwinds and targeted policy has aligned trader consensus with the 4.0–5.0% bracket as the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$897,506End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth has centered on the official 4.5–5.0% target amid resilient exports in AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and high-tech products offsetting subdued domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector adjustment. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion before Q2 momentum eased to around 4.3–4.5% due to weaker retail sales and fixed-asset investment, with external demand providing the primary buffer. Policymakers have signaled incremental fiscal support and domestic demand measures without aggressive monetary easing, while international forecasts from the IMF and others cluster near 4.4–4.7%. This combination of structural headwinds and targeted policy has aligned trader consensus with the 4.0–5.0% bracket as the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$897,506End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's 2026 GDP growth has centered on the official 4.5–5.0% target amid resilient exports in AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and high-tech products offsetting subdued domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector adjustment. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion before Q2 momentum eased to around 4.3–4.5% due to weaker retail sales and fixed-asset investment, with external demand providing the primary buffer. Policymakers have signaled incremental fiscal support and domestic demand measures without aggressive monetary easing, while international forecasts from the IMF and others cluster near 4.4–4.7%. This combination of structural headwinds and targeted policy has aligned trader consensus with the 4.0–5.0% bracket as the most probable outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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