The three teams promoted from the 2. Bundesliga—Schalke 04, SV Elversberg, and SC Paderborn—enter the 2026-27 campaign as the clearest relegation candidates, with Opta simulations assigning them the highest probabilities of dropping (around 22-25% each). Schalke and Paderborn return after multi-year absences with modest squad values and limited top-flight experience, while Elversberg makes its Bundesliga debut. Established sides such as 1. FC Köln, Werder Bremen, and Hamburger SV also sit in the danger zone due to defensive vulnerabilities exposed last season and early 2026-27 results showing inconsistent form. Recent matchdays have seen promoted sides post mixed outcomes, underscoring the typical adaptation struggles that drive trader focus on these clubs over more settled mid-table teams.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWerder Bremen
56%
SC Paderborn
55%
TSG Hoffenheim
50%
Borussia Dortmund
50%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
50%
Eintracht Frankfurt
50%
1. FC Köln
50%
Union Berlin
50%
VfB Stuttgart
50%
Bayer Leverkusen
50%
FC Augsburg
50%
FC Schalke 04
50%
Hamburger SV
50%
Mainz 05
50%
RB Leipzig
50%
SC Freiburg
50%
SV Elversberg
47%
Bayern Munich
7%
$50 Vol.
Werder Bremen
56%
SC Paderborn
55%
TSG Hoffenheim
50%
Borussia Dortmund
50%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
50%
Eintracht Frankfurt
50%
1. FC Köln
50%
Union Berlin
50%
VfB Stuttgart
50%
Bayer Leverkusen
50%
FC Augsburg
50%
FC Schalke 04
50%
Hamburger SV
50%
Mainz 05
50%
RB Leipzig
50%
SC Freiburg
50%
SV Elversberg
47%
Bayern Munich
7%
Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Bundesliga for the following season through their final standing in the 2026-27 Bundesliga, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Bundesliga.
If the 2026-27 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Bundesliga for the following season through their final standing in the 2026-27 Bundesliga, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Bundesliga.
If the 2026-27 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The three teams promoted from the 2. Bundesliga—Schalke 04, SV Elversberg, and SC Paderborn—enter the 2026-27 campaign as the clearest relegation candidates, with Opta simulations assigning them the highest probabilities of dropping (around 22-25% each). Schalke and Paderborn return after multi-year absences with modest squad values and limited top-flight experience, while Elversberg makes its Bundesliga debut. Established sides such as 1. FC Köln, Werder Bremen, and Hamburger SV also sit in the danger zone due to defensive vulnerabilities exposed last season and early 2026-27 results showing inconsistent form. Recent matchdays have seen promoted sides post mixed outcomes, underscoring the typical adaptation struggles that drive trader focus on these clubs over more settled mid-table teams.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions